Consumer Response to Chapter 11 Bankruptcy: Negative Demand Spillover to Competitors

By O. Cem Ozturk (Georgia Institute of Technology – Scheller College of Business), Pradeep K. Chintagunta (University of Chicago), & Sriram Venkataraman (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill – Kenan-Flagler Business School)

We empirically study the effect of Chrysler’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing on the quantity sold by its competitors in the U.S. auto industry. The demand for competitors could increase as they may benefit from the distress of the bankrupt firm (competitive effect). On the other hand, competitors could experience lower sales if the bankruptcy increases consumer uncertainty about their own viability (contagion effect). A challenge to measuring the impact of bankruptcies is the coincident decline in economic conditions stemming from the Great Recession and the potential effect of the “cash for clunkers” program. To identify the effect of the bankruptcy filing, we employ a regression-discontinuity-in-time design based on a temporal discontinuity in treatment (i.e., bankruptcy filing), along with an extensive set of control variables. Such a design is facilitated by a unique data set at the dealer-model-day level which allows us to compare changes in unit sales in close temporal vicinity of the filing. We find that unit sales for an average competitor reduce by 28% following Chrysler’s bankruptcy filing.

Our results suggest that this negative demand spillover effect is driven by a heightened consumer uncertainty about the viability of the bankrupt firm’s rivals. For example, we show that the sales of competitors’ vehicles that compete within the same segments as the bankrupt firm’s vehicles or that provide lower value for money are affected more negatively in response to the Chrysler filing. We also observe more web search activity for Chrysler’s competitors after the filing.

The full article can be found here.