OECD Report on Corporate Bond Markets in a Time of Unconventional Monetary Policy

By Ryan M. Rossner (Harvard Law School, J.D. 2019)

On February 25, the OECD published another report in its Capital Market Series, Corporate Bond Markets in a Time of Unconventional Monetary Policy, which noted both a significant increase of outstanding nonfinancial corporate debt and a simultaneous decrease in bond quality post-financial crisis. Authored by Mats Isaksson, Serdar Çelik, and Gul Demirtaş, the report drew upon a dataset of almost 85,000 unique corporate bond issues by nonfinancial companies from 114 countries between 2000 and 2018.

The report provides a detailed account of capital markets development post-financial crisis with comparisons among different jurisdictions.  The authors emphasize that levels of nonfinancial corporate bond issuances have reached record highs. Global outstanding debt in the form of corporate bonds issued by nonfinancial companies reached almost $13 trillion USD at the end of 2018, twice the amount in real terms than was outstanding in 2008.  The report links the expansion of corporate bond issuances to regulatory initiatives aimed at encouraging corporate bond issuances, expansionary monetary policy, and (particularly in the EU) quantitative easing.  The report also forecasted a record repayment period ahead with $2.9 trillion coming due for advanced economy issuers and $1.3 trillion for emerging economy issuers within 3 years.

The US remains the largest corporate bond market and US issuers raised the most funds over the period.  However, the authors found that the number of US nonfinancial issuers increased only modestly in the post-crisis era, suggesting increased issuer concentration in US primary corporate bond markets. Over the same period, Japan, the EU, Korea, and China all increased both their use of corporate bond issuances as a means of borrowing and their number of issuers. Most strikingly, the number of Chinese companies issuing bonds increased steeply from 68 issuers in 2007 to a peak of 1,451 in 2016.

Amidst the expansion, the authors found a marked decrease in bond quality. To support these conclusions, the authors pointed to a marked expansion of non-investment grade bonds, and the increase of BBB-rated bonds (the rating just above non-investment grade) as a percentage of investment grade debt (to 54% in 2018).

The report also noted a decrease in covenant protection for non-investment grade corporate bonds. The authors devised a “Covenant Protection Index” of US issuances, by looking at the presence or absence of 27 different types of covenants in bond indentures.  While the index is a rough measure of covenant protection, it demonstrated a downward trend for non-investment grade bonds.  The authors attribute the decrease in covenant protections to increased issuer bargaining power in a low interest rate environment, as investors have been willing to forgo certain protections in favor of higher yields.

The authors note that the combination of increased bond issuances, a “prolonged period of low issuer quality,” and “lower levels of covenant protection” for noninvestment grade bonds suggest that in an economic downturn the amount of expected future corporate bond defaults “may be considerably larger than that experienced in the financial crisis.” This report comes shortly after Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, during the January FOMC meeting press conference, described the current state of corporate debt as a “macroeconomic risk,” which could “amplify” a negative downturn.

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For a previous Roundtable post on distressed debt, see Edward Altman & Robert Benhenni, “The Anatomy of Distressed Debt Markets.”

 

Crossing The Line In Cross-Border Insolvencies

By Jonathan C. Gordon (Jones Day).

Consider an insolvency proceeding outside the United States. To obtain ancillary relief in the U.S., an authorized representative from that foreign proceeding can file a petition with a U.S. court under chapter 15 of the Bankruptcy Code. In chapter 15, the foreign representative acts as a liaison between the U.S. proceeding and the foreign proceeding. For example, the representative must update the U.S. court of substantial developments in the foreign proceeding.

But what happens when that foreign representative (appointed by a foreign court) commits misconduct in the U.S. proceeding; what can the U.S. court do? As I explain in my paper, courts have struggled with a solution. For one, the Bankruptcy Code does not address this situation (nor does the related UNCITRAL Model Law). And common law is equally unavailing; courts have tried and suggested potential solutions, but those approaches (and others) fall short.

In my paper, I propose a novel solution that is simple yet effective: the U.S. court should request the foreign court to replace the foreign representative. I also analyze legal issues related to the solution’s implementation, such as judicial authority, burden of proof, timing, and interim relief.

The full paper, recently published in the ABI Law Review, can be accessed here.

Rethinking “Too Big To Fail”

 By Saule T. Omarova (Cornell University)

“Too big to fail” – or “TBTF” – is a popular metaphor for a core dysfunction of today’s financial system: the recurrent pattern of government bailouts of large, systemically important financial institutions. The financial crisis of 2008 made TBTF a household term, a powerful symbol of the pernicious society-wide pattern of “privatizing gains and socializing losses.” It continues to frame much of the public policy debate on financial regulation even today, ten years after the crisis. Yet, the analytical content of this term remains remarkably unclear.

In a forthcoming article, I take a fresh look at the nature of the TBTF problem in finance and offer a coherent framework for understanding the cluster of closely related, but conceptually distinct, regulatory and policy challenges this label actually denotes. I begin by identifying the fundamental paradox at the heart of the TBTF concept: TBTF is an entity-centric, micro-level metaphor for a complex of interrelated systemic, macro-level problems. I argue that, while largely unacknowledged, this inherent tension between the micro and the macro, the entity and the system, critically shapes the design and implementation of the key post-2008 regulatory reforms in the financial sector.

To trace these dynamics, I deconstruct the TBTF metaphor into its two basic components: (1) the “F” factor focused on the “failure” of individual financial firms; and (2) the “B” factor focused on their “bigness” (i.e., relative size and structural significance). Isolating and examining these conceptually distinct components helps to explain why the potential for failure (and bailout) of individual firms – or the “F” factor – continues to be the principal focus of the ongoing TBTF policy debate, while the more explicitly structural, relational issues associated with financial firms’ “bigness” – or the “B” factor – remain largely in the background of that debate.

Analyzing post-crisis legislative and regulatory efforts to solve the TBTF problem through this simplifying lens reveals critical gaps in that process, which consistently favors the inherently micro-level “F” factor solutions over the more explicitly macro-level “B” factor ones. It also suggests potential ways of rebalancing and expanding the TBTF policy toolkit to encompass a wider range of measures targeting the relevant systemic dynamics in a more direct and assertive manner. Admittedly, implementing such deliberately structural measures would require a qualitative shift in the way we think and talk about the financial system and its dysfunctions – not an easy precondition to meet in practice. Yet, as I argue in the article, this deep attitudinal shift is the necessary first step toward finally achieving the lofty – and persistently elusive – goal of eliminating the TBTF phenomenon in finance.

The complete article is available for download here.

 

Debt Restructuring and Notions of Fairness

By Sarah Paterson (London School of Economics & Political Science)

In a recent article, I argue that we have repeatedly failed to identify clearly our concerns for fairness in different types of debt restructuring situations, and that this has confused corporate bankruptcy policy debate.  To defend the article’s thesis, I build a theoretical frame by unpacking the principles and the procedural demands of fairness from diverse fields of scholarship such as moral and political philosophy, biological sciences, psychology, organisation theory, group theory and economics.  I apply this theoretical frame to three very different types of debt restructuring: a restructuring of a small or medium sized enterprise; a restructuring of a large corporate; and a restructuring of a financial institution in English law.  In each case, a fairly typical fact pattern is outlined to ground the analysis, and the quality and extent of the fairness concerns examined.

The analysis in the article concentrates exclusively on fairness.  It does not consider the trade-off between fairness and other objectives (such as cost reduction), or utilitarian objections (such as concern that a situation which differentiates between classes of stakeholder in its approach to the fairness of the case would make stakeholders worse off overall), or arguments that what we might consider to be questions of fairness should properly be reinterpreted as economic questions.  In short, its objective is not to argue that fairness should prevail over all other considerations, but rather to explore, as an initial question, the quality of fairness in each of the situations with which it is concerned.

S. Paterson, ‘Debt Restructuring and Notions of Fairness’ (2017) 80(4) Modern Law Review 600 available here.

Debt Recharacterization Under State Law

By James M. Wilton (Ropes & Gray, LLP)

The majority federal law test for recharacterization of insider debt in bankruptcy establishes a multi-factor test drawn from federal tax cases. The test is problematic and has been rejected by Fifth and Ninth Circuit Courts of Appeals in favor of a state law rule of decision. The U.S. Treasury, in fact, has moved away from use of multi-factor tests even in tax cases because they are unworkable and produce “inconsistent and unpredictable results.”

In an article published this month in The Business Lawyer, I predict that the U.S. Supreme Court will resolve the circuit split over debt recharacterization in favor of a state law rule of decision. The article is intended for transactional lawyers interested in structuring transactions to minimize debt recharacterization risk and for bankruptcy litigators interested in understanding the arguments both for and against application of a federal or a state law rule of decision. For the circuits that have endorsed a state law rule of decision for debt recharacterization, the article examines the appropriate test for determining choice of law and surveys the substantive state law of debt recharacterization in thirteen jurisdictions, including New York and Delaware.

The article concludes that debt recharacterization under state law allows equity sponsors and other corporate insiders to provide credit support to distressed businesses, with greater assurance that loans will be enforceable both under state law and in bankruptcy court.

The full article is available here.1


  1. ©2019. Published in The Business Lawyer, Vol. 74, Winter 2018-2019, by the American Bar Association. Reproduced with permission. All rights reserved. This information or any portion thereof may not be copied or disseminated in any form or by any means or stored in an electronic database or retrieval system without the express written consent of the American Bar Association or the copyright holder.