Repo Markets Across the Atlantic: Similar but Unalike

By Songjiwen Wu (University of Heidelberg) and Hossein Nabilou (Universite du Luxembourg – Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance)

The vulnerabilities in the wholesale funding and in particular short-term (overnight) repurchase agreement (repo) markets were significant sources of systemic risk in the Global Financial Crisis. Numerous studies have investigated the role of repos in the crisis, but only a few scholars have explored why the European repo markets have weathered the crisis better than their US counterparts. With a focus on the underlying legal and structural features of repo markets across the Atlantic, our paper sets out to explain such a different outcome. In doing so, it sketches the key differences in the EU and the US repos by focusing on three main aspects of repo markets that are pivotal to highlighting potential vulnerabilities. First, it highlights the differences in the legal framework governing repos, such as legal construction of repo contracts, special bankruptcy treatment—the reform of which has been a key controversial issue across the Atlantic—and legal treatment of the reuse of collateral. Second, it discusses the composition, structure, and organization of the repo markets, such as differences in the composition of repo participants, maturity of repos, and the composition of the underlying collateral in repo contracts. Finally, it investigates the differences in the issues related to the market infrastructure of repo markets such as differences in the clearing and collateral management stages. The findings of our paper suggest that multiple legal and regulatory divergences, which could still pose challenges to the short-term funding markets, exist in repo markets across the Atlantic.

The full article is available here.


For previous Roundtable posts on repo markets, see Ganduri, “Repo Regret?“, and Morrison, Roe & Sontchi, “Rolling Back the Repo Safe Harbors“.

Bankruptcy Law as a Balancing System – Lessons from a Comparative Analysis of the Interaction Between Labor and Bankruptcy Laws

By Omer Kimhi (Haifa University Faculty of Law) and Arno Doebert (Independent)

The rehabilitation of distressed corporations often requires the reduction of labor costs. In order to regain economic stability, distressed firms need to terminate employees or modify their employment conditions. When employees are protected by statutes or by collective bargaining agreements, however, such measures are not always possible. The employer’s freedom to manage its work force is limited, and it may fail to implement labor reforms necessary for the firm’s recovery.

In the paper, we examine the intersection between bankruptcy and labor laws from a comparative perspective. We study the labor and bankruptcy laws of three different jurisdictions, the Netherlands, France, and Germany, and find a so far unexplored trend. Jurisdictions with high employment protection levels relax their otherwise rigid labor rules through their bankruptcy system. Within bankruptcy, employers enjoy greater flexibility and thus are better situated to decrease their labor costs and to reorganize.

The paper explores this trend vis-à-vis the arguments brought up by the procedural approach to bankruptcy. It looks at the rationale of the bankruptcy-induced modifications to the labor laws, and the effects these changes have on the bankruptcy process. We show that although the modifications are designed to promote the preservation of firms as going concerns, forum-shopping problems may lead to the opposite outcome. The analysis contributes to the ongoing debate between the traditional and procedural approaches, and sheds light on the interpretation of section 1113 of the Bankruptcy Code as well.

The full article is available here.

 

 

 

Valuation Disputes in Corporate Bankruptcy

Kenneth Ayotte (U.C. Berkeley School of Law); Edward R. Morrison (Columbia Law School)

In bankruptcy, valuation drives disputes. Prior bankruptcy scholarship points to disagreements about valuation and judicial valuation error as key drivers of Chapter 11 outcomes. Avoiding valuation disputes and errors is also the underlying driver of most proposed reforms to Chapter 11.

This paper studies all reported bankruptcy court opinions filed between 1990 and mid-2017 that provide detail about a valuation dispute and methodologies employed. We have two goals. The first is to understand how parties and their expert witnesses justify opposing views, and how judges decide between them. The second is to provide practical guidance to judges.

We find sharper disagreement among experts regarding inputs to the discounted cash flow method (DCF) than regarding inputs to multiples-based methods. In nearly half of cases involving DCF, experts fight over the discount rate; in nearly three quarters, they fight over cash flow projections. By contrast, disagreement over inputs to multiples-based methods, such as the choice of comparable companies, occurs in less than a fifth of the cases. This pattern helps explain why many judges view DCF as far more complex and error-prone than multiples-based methods.

There are also surprisingly pervasive (and often self-serving) errors in expert testimony. This is particularly true when valuation experts apply DCF. The choice of discount rates is frequently unsupported by, and often at odds with, finance theory and evidence. We also find experts strategically weighting methods with values most favorable to their clients.

We propose simple strategies based in finance theory that judges can employ to reduce the scope for valuation disagreements in Chapter 11. For example, we argue that courts should reject the use of company-specific risk premia in discount rates and be highly skeptical whenever experts weight some valuation methods more than others in calculating “average” estimated values.

The full article is available here.

 

The Effect of Creditor Rights on Capital Structure, Investment, Profitability, and Risk: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

By Aras Canipek (University of Konstanz), Axel Kind (University of Konstanz; University of Basel; University of St. Gallen), and Sabine Wende (University of Cologne)

Supply-side scholars have argued that laws which mandate managers to leave upon bankruptcy filing and which grant secured creditors strong power to quickly seize their collateralized assets lead to higher recovery rates, lower interest costs, and relaxed financial constraints, and that these consequences ultimately foster economic growth. In contrast, a more recent demand-side view raises the concern that borrowers can feel threatened by such liquidation-oriented regimes. Threatened borrowers may take (economically undesirable) actions to reduce the likelihood of having to bear high distress costs.

We find evidence in favor of the demand-side view by using Germany’s bankruptcy reform (ESUG) of 2012 and studying the causal effects of an exogenous downward shock to creditor rights on firms’ financial and investment policy. ESUG limited the rights of secured creditors by strongly facilitating firm continuation and allowing the manager to stay in unrestricted corporate control. In the study, we show that high-tangible-asset companies – which the reform predominantly affected – turned away from being overly risk-averse at the cost of profitability, relative to low-tangibility control firms. Specifically, weaker creditor rights motivated affected firms to increase financial leverage and to prefer the more flexible unsecured debt. Moreover, affected firms reduced unprofitable but risk-lowering expansions and sold off less profitable but easily-marketable assets that are useful in downturns by providing the liquidity that can prevent bankruptcy. Our results suggest that weaker creditor rights encourage firms to eliminate protection mechanisms formerly constructed to contract around liquidation-oriented bankruptcy provisions. This view is supported by the increased profitability and higher risk of treated firms after the reform.

The stronger pre-ESUG creditor rights not only produced ex post deadweight losses in terms of inefficient liquidation, but also discouraged firms to make profitable investment decisions. This reveals ex ante inefficiencies of creditor rights, an aspect largely ignored in the extant literature.

The article can be found here.

Beyond Common Equity: The Influence of Secondary Capital on Bank Insolvency Risk

By Thomas Conlon (University College Dublin), John Cotter (University College Dublin; UCLA Anderson School of Management); Philip Molyneux (University of Sharjah – College of Business Administration)

Prudential regulation requires banks to hold capital as a buffer in the event of losses and as a means to mitigate risk shifting by shareholders. Under capital regulation, a large menu of securities is permitted to contribute to regulatory capital. While previous studies have predominantly concentrated on the relationship between bank risks and narrow capital measures (such as tier 1 capital or equity capital), we further develop this work by looking at a broader menu of capital components. We examine bank insolvency risk (distance to default) for listed North American and European banks over the period from 2002 to 2014, with a focus on sensitivity to capital other than common equity. Decomposing tier 1 capital into equity and non-core components reveals a heretofore unidentified variation in risk reduction capacity. Greater non-core tier 1 capital is associated with increased insolvency risk for larger and more diversified banks, impairing the risk reducing capacity of aggregate tier 1 capital. Overall, tier 2 capital is not linked with insolvency risk, although a conflicting relationship is isolated conditional on the level of total regulatory capital held. Finally, the association between risk and capital is weakened when the latter is defined relative to risk-weighted assets.

The full article is available here.

Loan to Bond Substitution: An Empirical Analysis on the Functioning of the Substitution Channel for Eurozone Firms

By Francesco Ruggiero (University of Naples Federico II)

This paper contributes to the literature by enhancing the understanding of the link between bank debt and bond market debt in the Eurozone. This implication is particularly important for small firms that usually rely heavily on bank loans, and are likely to be excluded from the credit market during crises. In this paper, I find that firms based in the Eurozone can substitute bonds for loans in response to changing credit conditions. But the substitution is only partial, and firms will end up raising less funds than needed. Despite the bank centric feature of the European financial market that encourages firms to rely a lot on bank loans, bonds still serve as a substitute to loans. Firms in the Eurozone choose to substitute bonds for loans especially in periods in which the banking sector is in distress or the central bank implements policies to enhance credit.

The comparison with the U.S. firms (provided as benchmark) requires an in-depth analysis on the relative roles of the banking system and the financial market in Europe and the U.S. The divergence in results might indicate that policies enacted by the Fed in the U.S. might not be the best fit for European system. European Central Bank (“ECB”)  should thus tackle similar problems differently. In principle, the central bank’s expansive monetary policies should have affected bank lending positively as well. The reason why it did not work as expected along this transmission channel is that  the banks tend to hoard extra liquidity received from the ECB to deal with potential  sudden shortages in the future.

The full article is available here.

 

 

Optimal Deterrence and the Preference Gap

By Brook Gotberg (University of Missouri School of Law)

It is generally understood that the way to discourage particular behavior in individuals is to punish that behavior, on the theory that rational individuals seek to avoid punishment. Laws aimed at deterring behavior operate on the assumption that increasing the likelihood of punishment, the severity of punishment, or both, will decrease the behavior. The success of these laws is also evaluated by how much the targeted behavior decreases. The law of preferential transfers, which effectively punishes creditors who have been paid prior to the bankruptcy has been defended on the grounds that it deters a race to collect from a struggling debtor. However, deterrence theory suggests that the low likelihood of punishment and the cap on punishment associated with preference law make it a very poor deterrence. Further, statements pulled from interviews with affected creditors, debtors, and attorneys demonstrate that in practice, preference law does little or nothing to deter targeted behavior, and in the process imposes significant costs. The weaknesses of preference law call for its significant revision to place a greater focus on specific categories of creditors to be punished on account of their pre-bankruptcy activities.

The full article is available here.

 

Do Managers Strategically Change Their Disclosure Before a Debt Covenant Violation?

By Thomas Bourveau (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology), Derrald Stice (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology), and Rencheng Wang (University of Melbourne)

Little is known about how managers change their voluntary forecasting behavior as a debt covenant violation approaches. We find that management forecasts are more optimistic in the period leading up to a debt covenant violation (“DCV”), based on a sample of firms in the period before they disclose a DCV in their financial statements. Additionally, we find that managers who are most optimistic in their forecasts also take on more risk and increase dividend payouts before violations. Those managers tend to take actions consistent with last-resort efforts to delay the discovery of DCV and opportunistically engage in activities likely to be curtailed by lenders in the event of a covenant violation.

In further analyses, we partition our sample and find that managers are more likely to optimistically bias their earnings forecasts when they have a higher risk of losing control rights in the event of a DCV. Managers are less likely, however, to bias forecasts if lenders have greater ability to detect bias or if managers have higher reputation concerns. Finally, we perform additional analyses to rule out potential reverse causality and omitted variable issues. Overall, our results are consistent with managers changing their disclosure behavior in order to conceal upcoming covenant violations from debtholders and to justify taking actions that are favorable to equity investors and would likely be opposed by debtholders.

The full article is available here.

Bankruptcy Forum Shopping in Europe

By Wolf-Georg Ringe (University of Hamburg – Institute of Law & Economics; University of Oxford – Faculty of Law).

Over the past several years, European firms have been active in cross-border arbitrage to benefit from a more favorable bankruptcy regime. The European Insolvency Regulation (EIR), an instrument determining the competent courts and the applicable law in EU cross-border insolvency proceedings, has long sought to curb such efforts. A major reform which came into force in 2017 has the specific objective of further restricting abusive versions of forum shopping, in particular by introducing a three-month “suspension period” for forum shopping activities carried out shortly before the debtor files for insolvency.

In a recent article, I demonstrate that these efforts fail to achieve a satisfactory response to forum shopping. The key element of the reform, the suspension period, is both over-inclusive and under-inclusive in its scope of application and may, at best, be entirely without effect. The new rule will also create significant uncertainty and undermine effective ways of business restructuring.

Meanwhile, the reform does not address new variants of forum shopping, such as the use of the British “scheme of arrangement” by continental European firms. Such “procedural” forum shopping may be effected entirely without any physical relocation, as it does not come within the scope of application of the EIR.

The laudable goal of the EIR to improve the pricing of risks in cross-border insolvencies is jeopardized where the rules on jurisdiction are unclear or uncertain. The 2017 reform is a missed opportunity to improve the system by attaching substantive bankruptcy law and jurisdiction to a company’s registered office as the only clear and predictable connecting factor. Instead, the reform introduces new riddles and inconsistencies. Such steps will blur rather than improve the pricing of insolvency risk and thereby ultimately drive up the cost of capital.

The full article is available here.

Inequality and Equity in Bankruptcy Reorganization

Richard M. Hynes and Steven D. Walt (University of Virginia School of Law).

Courts have developed a series of controversial doctrines that allow a debtor to depart from bankruptcy’s standard priority rules.  In a recent decision, the Supreme Court signaled tolerance of one type of departure, the critical vendor payment, as long as it occurs early in the case and is what an economist would call a strict Pareto improvement: a payment that makes all creditors better off.  This essay demonstrates that Pareto improvements appear in the stated tests governing other departures, including roll-ups and substantive consolidations.  Some scholars, and a few courts, would apply much more permissive tests similar to economists’ Kaldor-Hicks standard and allow deviations as long as the winners gain more than the losers lose.  Still other courts would do away with these doctrines entirely and allow departures only with the consent of the disfavored.  Defending the judicial use of the Pareto standard in reorganizations, the essay further discusses some of the normative considerations in the choice between a Pareto standard, a Kaldor-Hicks standard, and an absolute prohibition.

The full article can be found here.

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