In The Lost Luster of the Juicy Apple Rumor, Steve Smith writes, “Most of the current rumors surrounding the fabled company involve Apple catching up to trends.” Ouch. In Samsung vs. Apple: Losing My Religion, which ran in AdAge last month, Barbara Lippert, a longtime member of the “Cult of Cupertino,” wrote, “The truth hurts.” That was in reference to Samsung ads that made fun of Apple, which she called “open for parody” — especially after the iPhone 5 turned out to be “a bit of a ‘meh.'” (I know: it’s not, but if that’s the perception…)
Look around the world today and you see a lot of Apple. If you’re making apps, you need a good reason not to make them for iPhones and iPads, just like you needed a good reason not to write for Windows late in the last millennium. There are just too damn many Apple thingies out there.
But we’re talking about high-turnover consumer electronics here. The life expectancy of a phone or a pad is 18 months. If that. Meanwhile, look at what Apple’s got:
- The iPhone 5 is a stretched iPhone 4s, which is an iPhone 4 with sprinkles. The 4 came out almost 3 years ago. No Androids are as slick as the iPhone, but dozens of them have appealing features the iPhone lacks. And they come from lots of different companies, rather than just one.
- The only things new about the iPad are the retina screen (amazing, but no longer unique) and the Mini, which should have come out years earlier and lacks a retina screen.
- Apple’s computer line is a study in incrementalism. There is little new to the laptops or desktops other than looks — and subtracted features. (And models, such as the 17″ Macbook Pro.) That goes for the OS as well.
- There is nothing exciting on the horizon other than the hazy mirage of a new Apple TV. And even if that arrives, nothing says “old” more than those two letters: TV.
Yes, there is a good chance Apple will have a big beautiful screen, someday. Maybe that screen will do for Apple what Trinitron did for Sony. But it will not be an innovation on the scale of the Mac, the iPod, the iPhone or the retail stores, all of which debuted in the Steve Age.
Steve built Apple on the model of a Hollywood studio — or, more specifically, Pixar. Apple’s products are like what Hollywood calls “projects.” And, like Pixar, Apple has very few of them. The business model — yea, the very nature of the company — requires each project to be a blockbuster: one after another, coming out a year or few apart. This model is suited to movie studios and the old computer industry. But it isn’t to consumer electronics, which is where Apple lives today.
There hasn’t been one Apple blockbuster since Steve died. Dare we consider the possibility that there won’t be another? It’s more than conceivable.
And let’s not forget how iOS 6 default-forces you to use Apple’s still-awful Maps app, which may be the biggest value-subtract in the history of computing. It still sees no subways in New York. (Stops, yes; but nothing more at any of them than links to the MTA website.) As fails go, it has few equals.
Apple’s job is to make trends, not to chase them. At that it is failing today.
This can change, of course. For the sake of Apple and its nervous shareholders I hope it does. But for now, Apple is getting ripe.
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“There hasn’t been one Apple blockbuster since Steve died…”
It’s been barely over a year since Steve died. Some perspective, please? It was six years between the iPod and iPhone.
Harping on Maps is getting a bit old, since Google maps is back (and free), and actually supports all the features that Google did not previously give Apple access to.
“The iPhone 5 is a stretched iPhone 4s which is an iPhone 4 with sprinkles. The 4 came out almost 3 years ago.”
And what of the Android devices that are basically incremental improvements of the original iPhone? With minor tweaks and extensions every year, and some questionable experiments (NFC). Or tablets that merely mimic the iPad, which if you recall, was considered a disappointment by the pundits on day one?
Step-changes can’t happen every year. You seem to be seeking Apple as theatre rather than Apple as a consumer product company. The company can stay profitable for years on the current line – growth will stall, sure,
but one doesn’t upend industries on a set schedule. -
Pingback from The Opt Out Weblog on January 22, 2013 at 5:35 pm
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I feel this Apple miasma too. Apples been here before. Where you can’t buy a box that does everything you need (like big enough harddrive) but that long interview with Tim Cook in business week made me feel better. And a couple days ago I began imagining what a computer phone could really be like… and the image in my mind was Mac OSX… only easier, but with all the hacker power of Unixy-Next baked right in.
as cycles go, Apple’s next product should be for developers. but I wonder if it’s going to happen, or if it’s going to cost so much that the innovative developers can’t afford it. and by innovative, I mean young people with lots of ideas but not too much $.
my iphone5 is as powerful as my PowerMac g4 350mhz that is still running in my closet as a webserver… and strangely, I can do more with my old mac than I can with my phone.
I hope Apple can remember about the deep power of general purpose computing. That is the next great thing. Can Tim Cook swing Apple back in that direction? Because that is how Apple has always renewed… because that is how it was born.
new creative power – development – maturation – perfection – stagnation – gestation and birth of new creative possibilities. it’s a cycle. Steve followed it his whole life. I wonder if he knew he did. The birthing process is the most messy, impossible, dangerous, misunderstood, process of all.
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Pingback from Closeted | The Opt Out Weblog on January 23, 2013 at 5:56 pm
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With friends like these…yikes.
How to call bullshit on this tripe? Let me count the ways.
1. They don’t march to an “electronics industry” drum. Is this right or wrong? I don’t know. Their tune is giving them what will shape up to be a killer decade. Beyond that, these alligator-tear laments about “meh” and trends and consumer perception, Jesus… unless you’re a Wall Street shill, why not calm down and see how it plays?
2. Conflating Apple now and Microsoft then: you’re talking market share but you’re inferring a lot more. There is a huge difference to what drove MS dominance in the 80s and 90s and what drives Apple’s now. Are the reasons black and white? No. But by and large it was a non-computer age where precedents were set by a different set of (mostly enterprise-driven) factors. Versus recently, when technology as a commodity was ripe for a new set of ease of use paradigms and design sophistication. And if you think the story is different for developers, I doubt your crystal ball can see that far.
3. “The iPhone 5 is a stretched” etc etc. Ai yi yi these complaints about iterative improvements shock and amuse the hell out of me. They remind me of a spoiled brat who’s always disappointed. (“That’s the Empire State Building? Meh!”) The retina screen: “amazing but no longer unique”… Jesus what a tough room. (When the thing can blow me, then we’ll talk.)
4. “Nothing exciting on the horizon”… Excuse me I guess you do have a crystal ball. And you’re pissed it’s broken.
Ah well WTF am I doing going through these points one by one? I’m just an acolyte after all.
I think Apple is doing a great deal wrong too. Just not these ridiculously popular and successful product hardware related things so many people are complaining about. And nowhere near as great a deal as the number of things they’re doing right.
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Doc, thanks for taking the time to write twice. Of all coincidences, I know how annoying that is.
I think there is some misunderstanding (on my part) of your intentions. You mention the market’s reaction in contrast to your own, OK, fair enough, I’m more than willing to say it’s the overall attitude of the universe that has my panties strangling my nethers, and if you say your writing is clear enough to separate you from the pack, that’s fine by me. I’m often guilty of having my back broken by straws.
I think we differ on point #1 simply because we both see the same history but have different expectations of what a company should do. I happen to think Apple’s way (including all the facets you mention, e.g. such topics as their strategic silence) is pretty cool and it’s only in the 21st century that it really started to work to their market advantage and dominance. (Not being a very savvy business guy, I had hoped for it to work better 1984–1996.)
Points 2 and 3, we’re aligned. Point 4, this is where I don’t get it. How much “vision” do any of us have to possess, or put another way, how many times does the cycle have to repeat, before we give Apple a little benefit of doubt? I mean, it’s worse than a damn baseball game: some guy hits 1, 2 home runs in a row. Third time up, another home run. Next day at the park, well, he was great yesterday but what has he done for us lately? I know SJ is dead and people are scared. I dismiss “the market” reaction, as you mention, analysts who are idiotic about a lot simpler industries, how the hell are they going to be sophisticated about Apple? But it’s troubling the herd is so willing to follow. OK so I have to get over that pipe dream. Do I know what’s on the horizon? Of course not. If there is one beauty about Apple, it’s that all people can do is guess 5S, “sprinkle” innovation, that’s as far as the herd imagination will go. And then folks cry that Apple isn’t innovating. To me, this is reasoning a la Kafka.
There is only one thing I’m sure of: Apple has something wonderful coming. Will it arrive on your schedule or mine? Probably not. Will it be “too late”? Success? Failure? (One failure and they’re doomed, irrelevant!) Will there be another, or a string of other, market-defining products? I’m not betting against it.
I guess my personality screams out “value investor”! And here I always thought I was growth.
Thanks again for your reply.
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“my iphone5 is as powerful as my PowerMac g4 350mhz that is still running in my closet as a webserver… and strangely, I can do more with my old mac than I can with my phone.”
But you’re certainly not going to put that PowerMac G4 in your pocket and be able to use it wherever you go. So I question the use of “more” in this statement.
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I knew you agreed with me. 😉
Seriously, I think it’s a question of tone. My point is not that a company, any company, will live and thrive and make magic forever. Far from it. But we’re all way, way, I say way too early to make any pronouncements one way or the other. (After all, IBM is still doing all right. For that matter, so is Brooks Brothers, Wiley Publishing, and Jim Beam.) And I mean early even if Apple hits 2 or 3 innings worth of foul balls. (Of course such a thing would cause the market to really freak out, if yesterday’s response is any indication.)
As I said before, or meant to, I don’t know how long Apple can run. But the first lieutenants and contemporaneous apostles are at the helm. I don’t expect Wall Street to take note, but the rest of us who have some sense of history and proportion, surely we can.
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“Lee Scott, the former Walmart CEO, told me that Sam Walton made all the big decisions, long after he died, because it was clear what Sam would have done.”
That makes me chuckle, because I actually worked for Wal-Mart, starting about two years after Sam Walton died. And while I was there, all I ever heard from the old-timers was that everything was changing. That Sam never would have done it that way. That Sam was for the employees and management was taking everything away. So a former CEO might have felt that way, but the people I knew that worked in the stores certainly did not.
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Apple today seems to be a bit “lame” in compare to its competitor Samsung. You can see that when Samsung launched Galaxy S3 Apple also launched their product i.e. iphone 5. They are at race in the sales right now. But recently Samsung released Galaxy S3 mini which answer that ths S3 is expensive. What about Apple, is there any of their product that not only satisfy their consumer with a high quality product but also affordable?
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I think what you wrote in 1997 was true/accurate back then – Different times, different team now. Will be interesting to watch and see what transpires.
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