f/k/a archives . . . real opinions & real haiku

Because he is 78 years old, a lot of commentators seem to think that the new Pope, Benedict XVI, is likely to have a very short term, in a placeholder or interim papacy.

Norm Pattis at Crime & Federalism even penned a post calling him “Pope Rigor Mortis I,” and offering a long-distance, photographically-based, negative assessment of Benedict’s “intellectual vigor.” [Norm, there are a lot of octagenarians with intellectual vigor and a lot of brash younger folk without it.  I’ve seen no sign that Joseph Ratzinger’s much-praised and prolific brain has been in decline.]

growing old–
by the hearth’s light
piecework

… ISSA , translated by David G. Lanoue

Although I’m hoping RiskProf Martin Grace will use his expertise and/or contacts to come up with more specific LE numbers for Benedict XVI, I’ve decided to do some quick research.   I discovered:

• The average life expectancy of a male in the U.S. who lives to be
  78 is 8.7 additional years. (National Vital Statistics Reports,Vol. 53, No.6, Nov. 10,2004, p. 16, Table 5).

• However, based on nationality, we might expect Benedict XVI to
  have a slightly longer life expectancy, since the mortality tables show that the overall life expectancy in Germany, Joseph Ratzinger’s birthplace, is 77.4 years; and, in his most recent country of residency, Italy, it’s 79.0 years.  The life expectancy in U.S.A. is lower — 77.1 years. [from U.S. Census Bureau’s International Data Base, via About.com geography page].

Of course, there are other factors that might further prolong Benedict’s life expectancy and/or active lifespan:

– education level

– clean living

– access to the very best health care (at no cost)

– prayers of hundreds of millions of the faithful

– divine intervention

So, as he has a job with no mandatory retirement age, those expecting Benedict XVI to be just a shooting star should probably choose a simile featuring a more-permanent heavenly body — and react, plan, celebrate, worry, etc., accordingly.

update (April 22, 2005):  The gracious RiskProf has responded to our request for his expert opinion — giving his own musings on eternal life expectancies and ancient Romans.  Martin also linked to an AP story that discusses the state of Pope Benedict’s health.

the old priest

dressed like a dandy —

spring mountain

nowhere, nowhere
can a young scarecrow
be found

my old age–
even facing a scarecrow
ashamed

… … ISSA , translated by David G. Lanoue

by dagosan:

my long-lived elders —

a couple extra decades

of dementia

[April 20, 2005]