2008:China doubled oversea direct investment

9月8日,商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局联合发布的《2008年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》(下称统计公报)显示,2008年,中国对外直接投资净额达559.1亿美元,较上年增长111%,年度对外直接投资额首次突破500亿美元。

金融类对外直接投资尤为活跃,达到140.5亿美元,同比增长741%;非金融类对外直接投资同比增长68.5%。

See 2008年中国对外直投额翻番

周其仁:能力定价和发展高科技产业

能力定价和发展高科技产业

周其仁

北京大学中国经济研究中心

知识和技术的载体是有头脑的人。知识和技术转化为生产力的载体是企业。因此研究高科技产业的发展策略,不能不研究有头脑的人和企业。本文讨论人和企业诸多问题中的一个:市场和企业怎样为掌握知识和技术的人的头脑定价,有利于知识和技术在经济发展中得到更充分的运用。

一、定价问题:一般商品和特别商品

北 京人都知道大白菜的故事。大白菜是居民的生活必需品,所以当时的政府很有理由地管制着大白菜的价格。管制的结果是,菜农不愿意供应低价白菜,而居民的“需 求”又因为低价机制而毫无弹性。于是政府两头忙:一头要督促农民种够大白菜,另一头要组织低价大白菜在城市居民中的分配。后来开放了市场,允许价格反映大 白菜的供需形势,价格就开始发挥所谓的资源配置功能。现在,政府再也无需为大白菜而忙乎了。这个故事说明,定价机制被歪曲,连大白菜都会供不应求。

改 革二十年,关于价格机能对一般商品供求的调节作用,大家的认识似乎一致了。现在的问题是一些特别商品,比如所谓事关国计民生的粮食、油料、棉花,能不能放 开由市场价格自由调节,政府和许多经济学家的意见还不那么一致。至于更特别的一些商品,比如货币(其价格是利率),能不能由市场价格机能来调节供求,人们 的认识就更分歧一点了。但是,今天的政府和中央银行,比以往任何时候都更注意主动利用利率杠杆,也是一个可以观察到的事实。 Continue reading

金融危机中特拉华州法院对商业判断准则的态度

The Welcome Reaffirmation of the Business Judgment Protection

(Editor’s Note: This post is based on a client memorandum by Martin Lipton, Steven A. Rosenblum, and Sabastian V. Niles of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz.)

Despite increasing political and media focus on and criticism of risk assessment and risk management efforts by corporate boards, yesterday’s In Re Citigroup Inc. Shareholder Derivative Litigation, No. 3338-CC (Feb. 24, 2009), decision by the Delaware Court of Chancery is a welcome indication that the business judgment rule will survive the financial crisis intact. Continue reading

Lessons from the Financial Crisis

Lessons from the Financial Crisis

(Editor’s Note: This post comes from Mats Isaksson of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.)

The OECD Steering group has recently issued a report entitled “Corporate Governance Lessons from the Financial Crisis.”

This Report concludes that the financial crisis can be to an important extent attributed to failures and weaknesses in corporate governance arrangements. When they were put to a test, corporate governance routines did not serve their purpose to safeguard against excessive risk taking in a number of financial services companies. A number of weaknesses have been apparent. The risk management systems have failed in many cases due to corporate governance procedures rather than the inadequacy of computer models alone: information about exposures in a number of cases did not reach the board and even senior levels of management, while risk management was often activity rather than enterprise-based. These are board responsibilities. In other cases, boards had approved strategy but then did not establish suitable metrics to monitor its implementation. Company disclosures about foreseeable risk factors and about the systems in place for monitoring and managing risk have also left a lot to be desired even though this is a key element of the Principles. Accounting standards and regulatory requirements have also proved insufficient in some areas leading the relevant standard setters to undertake a review. Last but not least, remuneration systems have in a number of cases not been closely related to the strategy and risk appetite of the company and its longer term interests.

The Report also suggests that the importance of qualified board oversight, and robust risk management including reference to widely accepted standards is not limited to financial institutions. It is also an essential, but often neglected, governance aspect in large, complex non-financial companies. Potential weaknesses in board composition and competence have been apparent for some time and widely debated. The remuneration of boards and senior management also remains a highly controversial issue in many OECD countries.

The current turmoil suggests a need for the OECD, through the Steering Group on Corporate Governance, to re-examine the adequacy of its corporate governance principles in these key areas in order to judge whether additional guidance and/or clarification is needed. In some cases, implementation might be lacking and documentation about the existing situation and the likely causes would be important. There might also be a need to revise some advice and examples contained in the OECD Methodology for Assessing the Implementation of the OECD Principles of Corporate Governance.

The full report can be found here.

公安部:对企业高管慎用拘留逮捕

公安部:对企业高管慎用拘留逮捕

考虑当前经济形势,讲究执法方式,要求慎对企业资金实施查封、冻结等

【《财经网》综合报道】在当前经济形势下,公安经侦部门对负责企业正常经营的高管人员要慎用拘留、逮捕措施;对涉嫌犯罪企业的正常经营账户、资金,要慎用查封、扣押、冻结措施。
据人民网消息,12月23日,公安部党委委员、部长助理郑少东在全国公安机关经侦系统执法工作电视电话会议上做上述讲话。
郑少东认为,在国际金融危机中,面对日益繁重的经济犯罪侦查工作,公安经侦部门自身还存在着一些不适应,个别地方甚至存在执法不作为、乱作为、滥用强制措施等现象。
“各级公安经侦部门在依法打击经济犯罪的同时,要严格把握法律政策界限,讲究执法方式方法。”郑少东提出,要从办案的法律效果与社会效果出发,根据必要与可行的原则,正确适用强制措施。
郑少东同时指出,不能因为执法不当给企业生产经营活动造成影响,更不能从地方和部门利益出发,使企业的生产经营活动雪上加霜,甚至引发群体性事件。
与此同时,近日,浙江省高级法院、省检察院、省公安厅亦联合发布《关于当前办理集资类刑事案件适用法律若干问题的会议纪要》(下称《纪要》),要求慎重 办理因资金链断裂引发的集资类刑事案件,严格区分企业集资类案件中罪与非罪的界限,正确处理刑、民交叉的问题,实现刑事司法法律效果和社会效果的统一。
据《人民法院报》12月24日报道,该《纪要》要求突出重点,打击少数,维护稳定,对于为生产经营所需而向不特定人员筹集部分资金的行为,不轻易动用刑罚,防止因机械执法扩大打击面,影响企业经营和社会稳定。■
(《财经》记者 罗洁琪)

Chimerica时代的终结?

Chimerica时代的终结? (The End of Chimerica?)

(newest posts on this topic: Niall Ferguson, “Team ‘Chimerica’”)

弗格森教授用Chimerica 来描述中美经济事实上的一体化,可谓形象生动。 Chimerica 的运作方式是美国负责消费、中国负责生产。简单化地说,就是中国的生产企业赚了钱,除了拿来投资扩大再生产,就借给美国金融机构;美国金融机构有了钱,就放贷给私人买房,钱太多,只好大大咧咧地放出去;美国金融机构不怕收不回来,因为反正还有钱再从中国进来;美国私人有房子这样的不动产,自然放心消费;美国人放心消费,吸纳了中国扩大生产后出口的产品。

Chimerica 方式现在行不通了,因为爆发了金融危机。美国金融机构在国内的贷款眼看收回无望,海外的钱也不再源源不断流进来了;美国私人抵押贷款购买的房产被金融机构大量收回;因为失去房产,带来美国消费大大下降;消费的减少,势必带来中国生产的下降。金融危机是不是已经带来了Chimerica 时代的终结?

金融危机当头,美国政商两界现在都在讨论解决方案。无论何种问题的解决,都会对中国经济产生深远影响。解决方式无非有二,就是政府放任不管让金融业破产,或者政府找到钱弥补金融业的亏空让它继续运营下去。没有谁会想要听任美国金融业破产,因为大家直接间接都拥有美国金融资产,破产会让所有人都受损失。所谓探讨问题解决方案,说白了只是谁得承担必要的损失而已。

尽管国会里、媒体上到处在讨论,各种方案曾出不穷,从这两天的情况看,由政府发行更多国债以抒缓流动性紧张是唯一得到政商两界认真对待的解决方案。这就是说,金融机构会像以往一样得到更多的钱,只不过这些钱不再是直接流入的海外现金,而是美国政府先拿到海外现金,再从口袋里掏出来给金融机构。如果这个方案得到实施,美国金融机构将面临盈利的巨大压力——这些钱所产生的利润不仅得得支付国债利息,还得弥补过去的亏空。要投资到哪里才能获得这么多的盈利?

假定美国企业的出口和盈利不会显著增长,只有把这些钱投资到新兴市场才可能获得所需要的盈利。这就是说,美国金融机构不能把这些钱当“热钱”——也就是用作投机——因为投机即使利润很高,只能得逞一时,不能长期依赖。既然不能把这些钱当“热钱”,那么以往等待人民币升值为目的的投资中国股市、房地产的模式,今后美国金融机构就不能遵循。用个俗套,今后美国金融机构的投资必须是真正的价值投资、理性投资。

实现真正的价值投资,要求美国政界、商界更多地参与中国事务。对美国而言,仅做贸易已经不足以保障价值投资,深度参与中国市场已箭在弦上。这不会只是美国的一厢情愿。对中国而言,现在还没有任何一个市场可以取代美国——消费力巨大、市场没有壁垒——放弃与美国的经济合作是不可能的;中国要实现经济的升级换代,必须向美国公司购买必需的技术和设备。

Chimerica 时代远未终结,才刚刚开始。

延伸阅读:

弗格森: Chimerica时代即将终结

The End of ‘Chimerica’

哈佛大学教授:华尔街危机并未终结“美国时代”

Economist: Executive compensation in China:False options

Executive compensation in China:False options

From The Economist print edition

A study of share options reveals a vast amount of untouched wealth

HOW executives are rewarded is one of the many mysteries of China’s increasingly powerful companies. Unravelling it is important, not least because it should help to explain corporate China’s transformation Continue reading