THINKING ABOUT 2006

  ‘Rising Sun’; The Swimwear for 2006 by Speedo


2006 is finally here.   So, what’s ahead?   My predictions for the New Year;


Westerners, especially Americans, will still think of freedom in terms of having money, and not in having the right to vote.  They will expect others, though, to retain a superstitious reverance for elections.  Americans, for their part, will obstinately continue to believe in a benign god, even though deep down most know of them know better.  And will act accordingly.


There will be a major crisis in Japanese/Chinese relations, shares will rise and then flatten.  Housing prices (and interest rates) will cool. Unions will resume their backward march.  The credit cycle will turn.  GM will muddle through.  Africa will continue to suffer.  There will be no bird flu pandemic.  Iraq will go off the radar.  Democrats will remain a minority.  Communism, or at least its core idea, will begin to emerge from its long torpor. The Renminbi will not be revalued, and India will move closer to Washington.  


Germany’s “recovery” will be sluggish.  Unemployment will remain high there as well as in the rest of Europe.   Poland, in fact, will see joblessness climb to 25%.  Most of their plumbers will emigrate to France.  Russia’s economy will continue to rebound, fulfilling in part Putin’s wish to see the Kremlin become the world’s energy kingpin.


But the really, really big story for 2006 is that China will continue to emerge as a tenable alternative to Anglo/American capitalism.   


In other words, 2006 will be a lot like last year.


Only more so.


After a pause, refreshed?  

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