Posted in Military, Nuclear, Pakistan, Stephen Peter Rosen on Dec 28th, 2007 Comments Off on Pakistan’s military tested
From Stephen Peter Rosen The possibility that widespread social unrest in Pakistan might have implications for the security of Pakistani nuclear weapons has always been discounted by those who point, correctly, to the highly professional character of the Pakistani Army. In a set of interviews released late this fall, General Musharraf tried to reassure Americans […]
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Posted in Intelligence, Iran, Mark T. Clark, Nuclear on Dec 22nd, 2007 Comments Off on Fundamental flaw in the NIE
From Mark T. Clark The controversial National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program raises more questions than it answers. Critics—and criticisms—are aplenty. These have focused on three levels: tactical (the kind of intelligence we have), strategic (understanding Iran’s intentions) and political (the fallout on U.S. and international policies in curbing Iranian nuclear ambitions). Given […]
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Posted in Intelligence, Iran, Michael Rubin, Nuclear on Dec 21st, 2007 Comments Off on Iran: Did coercion work?
From Michael Rubin Dilip Hiro, a London-based author who focuses on Iran and Iraq and a frequent commentator in The Nation, addresses the question “Why Iran Didn’t Cross the Nuclear Weapon Road” in a recent essay (YaleGlobal Online, Dec. 11, 2007) he wrote for the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization.
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Posted in Iran, Nuclear on Dec 12th, 2007 Comments Off on Iran and nukes: common sense trumps ‘intelligence’
From Raymond Ibrahim Much of the current debate surrounding Iran’s nuclear aspirations is informed by the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report which “judge[s] with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” While such reports tend to be accepted as authoritative—witness the ongoing political maelstrom caused by it—it is imperative to […]
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Posted in Intelligence, Iran, Nuclear, Stephen Peter Rosen on Dec 7th, 2007 Comments Off on Iran NIE and a prediction
From Stephen Peter Rosen For the most part, the arguments about the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran have been and will be a debate, not about intelligence, but about Bush foreign policy. But the NIE also provides an opportunity to assess our own ability to do assessments, by publicly stating what we think the […]
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Posted in Intelligence, Iran, Matthew Levitt, Nuclear, Sanctions on Dec 7th, 2007 Comments Off on Sanctions on track, despite (and thanks to) Iran NIE
From Matthew Levitt Conventional wisdom, if one reads the daily papers and the unnamed European officials quoted therein, is that a third UN Security Resolution targeting Iran is now highly unlikely in wake of the release of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear intentions and capabilities. The assessment opened with the zinger that […]
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