No convention bounce
Members of the press and the Bush administration political shop have been discussing the lack of a” bounce” in Kerry’s numbers for a couple of days now. Besides the fact that many of the earlier polls had been started before the Kerry speech, there are other methodological problems that are usually small but which make a difference in a close race like this.
More important than the methods questions: Many of the president’s advisers seem to insinuate that Bush will receive a bounce after his convention. But with the Kerry numbers essentially remaining steady, it seems reasonable to predict that Bush’s numbers will also. I’m betting that Bush gets no bounce from his TV show either.
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