2 September 2004

Gallup insights into election

The Gallup organization has gleaned eleven insights into the electorate from its recent rounds of polls.  Here are some highlights that I find socio-politically fascinating:

4. Moderate Republicans constitute a relatively small but important target segment of voters in this election.

Moderate Republicans (that is, Republicans who describe their
political views as “moderate” or “liberal”) constitute about a third of
the group of Republican likely voters in Gallup’s recent polling, and
are somewhat cross-pressured by the conflict between their party
affiliation and their ideology. Gallup polling finds that moderate
Republicans are about three times as likely as conservative Republicans
(25% vs. 9%) to be swing voters (that is, either undecided or willing
to consider changing their vote). Additionally, 13% of moderate
Republicans say they will vote for Kerry, compared with 4% of
conservative Republicans. All of this suggests that moderate
Republicans are less likely to be locked into a vote for the party and
are therefore more susceptible to campaign blandishments from both
sides.

6. Public opinion has turned slightly more supportive of U.S. involvement in Iraq.

Fifty-one percent of Americans now say that the situation in Iraq
was worth going to war over. In early May, that number was 44%.

Similarly, the two most recent Gallup Polls have shown that about
50% of Americans believe that the U.S. involvement in Iraq was not
a mistake. That is up from three polls in late June and early July when
only about 45% thought that sending troops to Iraq was not a mistake,
and the “mistake” number was up to 54%.

Bush is now in his strongest position vis-

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