On false research findings
From PLoS Medicine: “There is increasing concern that most current
published research findings are false. The probability that a research
claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other
studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no
relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field.
In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when
the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are
smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of
tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs,
definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater
financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are
involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance.
Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more
likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many
current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be
simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias.” (Sources: Daypop,
ResourceShelf)