Scott E. Hartley

On Sunday July 5, Mexico will elect host its mid-term elections, bringing change to its lower house of Congress, six governor and hundreds of mayoral offices.  The reform agenda of President Felipe Calderon will depend on his ability to secure a majority in the 500-member Chamber of Deputies, or “Deputatos.”  Calderon’s party, the National Action Party (PAN) competes with the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).  Though Calderon’s PAN hold more Senate and Deputy seats, they lack a majority due to the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), a group that occupies seats vital to Calderon’s reform.

Today, Mexico has roughly 27M people, or 25 percent of its population, online.  Before Sunday’s elections, online trends point to pockets of support across demographics and regions. Aside from trends that can be observed looking at Internet search volume, for Mexico’s youth demographic, Facebook’s Lexicon displays prevalence of terms on Facebook Wall posts. When comparing “PRI” with “PAN,” the margin of difference for Calderon’s PAN has increased since March 2009.  In fact, Facebook Wall reference volume on PAN is triple PRI, and peaking around June 15. A majority for either side will signal reform in Mexico.