I think there are more reasons to believe in the Bucs than the Chiefs today: better offensive line, better defense, Brady’s unequaled Super Bowl experience, etc. But the Chiefs are favored by 3.5 points, last I looked, and they have other advantages, including the best quarterback in the game—or maybe ever—in Patrick Mahomes.

And that’s the story. The incumbent GOAT (greatest of all time) is on his way out and the new one is on his way in. This game will certify that. I also think the Chiefs will beat the spread. By a lot. Because Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense is just that good, and that ready.

Disclosures… In 2016, I correctly predicted, for the same reason (it makes the best story) that Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers would beat the Golden State Warriors for the NBA championship. Also, a cousin of mine (once removed—he’s the son of my cousin) is Andy Heck, the Chiefs’ offensive line coach. So, as a long-time fan of both the Patriots and Tom Brady, I’ll be be cool with either team winning.

But I do think a Chiefs win makes a better story. Especially if Mahomes does his magic behind an offensive line of injuries and substitutes outperforming expectations.

[Later…] The Chiefs lost, 31-9, and their o-line was terrible. Poor Pat had to use his scrambling skills to the max, running all over the backfield looking for a well-covered receiver. And he came inches from hitting one in the end zone at least twice, while on the run 50 or more yards away. This was the Chief’s worst loss ever in the Mahomes era. Anyway, it looked and felt like it. But hey: congrats to the Bucs. They truly kicked ass.

I thought the Rockets were great in last night’s game—and say that as a Warriors fan. (I even had season tickets back in the Run TMC era, when tickets were still affordable).

The Rockets’ problem was that the Warriors were greater, and it wasn’t just because SuperSteph showed up in the second half. Basketball is a team game, and the difference was the Warriors’ bench.

The Warriors have been getting shit for their bench all season; but the bench played great. They showed why the Warriors are in fact a great team, and not just the Splash Brothers + KD.

Look at the stats, not the highlight reel. The whole bench was +14 for the game. Two of the five players scoring in double-figures came off the bench. (Three of the five if you count Andre Iguodala, filling in for the injured KD.) The leading bench scorer was Kevon Looney. (Yes, that’s his name. And he’s actually good.) Shawn Livingston was terrific.

Here’s how to tell how good the Rockets really are: Nearly every other franchise in the league, other than the Warriors, would gladly trade their whole team for the Rockets. And maybe every team. Even Milwaukee. And hell, maybe even the Warriors.

I say that because the Rockets best strategy in the offseason is to wait for the Warriors to break up. The chance that both Klay and KD will stay is small, though it’s possible. Steph is still great, but he’s passing the top of his career arc. Draymond isn’t who he was two years ago. Iguodala and Livingston are ready to retire. If the Warriors partially disband this summer, the best team in the West will be the Rockets. Milwaukee will still be the best in the East, though Toronto and Philly will still be excellent, especially if Kawhi stays put. (Boston won’t suck, but needs at least a partial rebuild: something they can easily do.)

Anyway, there’s no shame in what happened to the Rockets this year. A truly great team lost to a slightly greater one that likely won’t stay that way.

I’m a Golden State Warriors fan. Not huge, but big enough to have held season tickets through the Run TMC years. (I grew up a Knicks fan, and liked the Celtics when I lived in Boston, but those are less leveraged these days.) So I do want the Warriors to win tonight.

But I don’t expect them to, because the Cavs make a better story.

LeBron James has made clear, especially over the last two games, that he is the best all-round player of all time. Michael Jordan had no weaknesses, but he wasn’t as strong as LeBron at defense, passing, shot blocking, and treating the other team the way a bowling ball treats pins. Or as strong, period.

Nobody on Earth is playing any game, anywhere ,with more determination, skill and strength than LeBron James is right now. And nobody is better at getting his whole team to play as one. Or at a more ideal time and place.

Kyrie Irving is also playing his best, which means he can pretty much get whatever shot he wants, whenever he wants it. And Tristan Thompson, a near-nobody before the playoffs, is playing like the second coming of Stephen Adams, who gave Thompson and the Cavs coaching staff a clinic on how a big man can take advantage of the Warriors’ weakness in the middle.

Let’s face it: the OKC Thunder figured out the Warriors pretty well. Even though the Thunder failed, they took the Warriors to seven games and gave the Cavaliers a lot of lessons to work with. Now that Bogut is out and Iguodala is slowed by back problems, the Warriors also lack their best shot blocker and their best defense against LeBron. Draymond Green also needs to play cautiously to avoid more technical and flagrant fouls, to which he is highly prone. Harrison Barnes has been subtracting from his free agent value nearly every time he shoots the ball. Even Shawn Livingston, normally a great floor leader when he comes off the bench for Steph, has been shooting bricks.

Four things look good for the Warriors tonight: 1) they’re playing at home, 2) their three best players are healthy, 3) two of those players are the best outside shooters in the game, and 4) one of those two was the unanimous MVP this year for good reasons. Even though Steph hasn’t been his old self enough in this series, it could be lights out if he shows up big tonight. Same goes for Klay.

If a game between two great teams doesn’t stay close to the end, one of the two will melt. That’s what happened in every game so far in this series. In total both teams have the same number of points, but each team has melted before the end three times. The problem for the Warriors is that they melted twice in each of the last two games: first at home, and then in Cleveland. They also melted under tremendous heat from the Cavaliers. Actually it was worse than that. They came apart at the seams. We saw that when Steph Curry pitched a fit after his sixth foul and Klay Thompson walked to the locker room before the game ended. Both moves were weak and childish, inviting no confidence from their teammates and giving plenty to their opponents.

No doubt the Warriors can win. But no doubt they also feel entitled, and that’s a problem too. You get a clear sense in this series that the Cavs want to win the title more than the Warriors want to keep it (along with the legacy of a record-breaking regular season). That legacy isn’t a burden to the Cavaliers. It’s a rooster they want to knock off its shed.

So, again, I don’t want to see King James wear the crown tonight. But either way it goes, he’ll still earn the right to the nickname. And he’ll be the MVP when it matters most.

Here’s the best way to determine a most valuable player on any team: look at how the team would have done without him, or her.

In the case of the NBA, look at Cleveland and Miami with and without LeBron James. Day and night aren’t much more extreme.

True: Golden State would have been far weaker without Steph Curry. Still, as essential as Steph is to Golden State, LeBron is at least as essential to Cleveland.

Here’s how to tell. Subtract four other starters from Golden State and see how they do. That’s pretty much what happened to Cleveland. The starting team LeBron played with after Kyrie Irving went out was not the one he had at the start of the season. And still he led his team to a pair of overtime games in Oakland, and kept his team in every game in the series at least through three quarters.

And LeBron is a true leader. He could score on every possession, yet still shares the ball like a point guard, with quick pinpoint passes that often baffle his opponents, and smart plays in which he plays a supporting role.

That he’s expected to win championships nearly every year he plays, like Michael Jordan did, is ludicrous. There are 30 teams in the NBA, and plenty of talent on even the worst of them. Every year there are injuries and changes, on nearly every team. (Sad example: Oklahoma City.) One reason Golden State won it all was that they were relatively injury free all year — and notably in the playoffs. The team they played in the finals was LeBron and his bench. (And yes, some of that bench was first-string elsewhere, like J.R. Smith, who was huge in the playoffs for Cleveland.)

Not saying this to take anything away from Andre Iguodala, who was key to Golden State’s success (though obviously less valuable than Steph Curry), and named MVP of the finals. I love Andre’s game. He’s a smart defender and a great nearly-all-round player (he shoots better threes than free throws). But LeBron is more than the best player in the game. He’s the best team member as well. And that deserves more mention than it gets.

One last thing. Yeah, I know that LeBron overrode and ignored his coach much of this year. But consider this: LeBron is more than the best player. He may also be the smartest. The man has a legendary memory of every game he’s played, and a keen sense of what his team and each of its players can and can’t do — possibly more keen than any coach.

A common sports media assumption right now is that David Blatt will be gone as Cleveland’s coach next year. Here’s a possibility to consider: LeBron replacing him as player-coach. It’s not like it hasn’t been done. Remember Bill Russell.

If you care about sports at all, you need to see the NBA Finals this year. What you will see are the two best players, on the two best teams — perhaps ever.

We’re not talking just about talent here. We’re talking about teams. Basketball at its best is a pure team game, and these guys are showing how it’s done.

Let me lay out my loyalties here first. They don’t matter, but I might as well.

I’ll always be a Knicks fan. But I’m a Golden State fan too. For a number of years in the late 80s (the “Run TMC” era) I had season tickets to the Warriors. And when I lived in Boston (’07-’13) I rooted for the Celtics as well.

But I just love the game. And right now we are seeing two amazing teams play outstanding team ball.

The two stars — the best players of our time — LeBron James and Steph Curry, lead their teams beautifully. As players they are hugely different, mostly because LeBron is huge (6-8, 260) and Steph isn’t. LeBron is simply the best player in the world, and perhaps ever. He is also making his team — all of whom, other than LeBron himself, were second-stringers or elsewhere at the start of the season — better than Golden State, which has the best record in the league. Cleveland plays top-notch defense and share the ball all over the place. They played the first to games away, at Golden State, and were expected to lose. Instead they pushed both games to overtime and won the second one. Then they won another at home. that makes them better, at least through three games.

Meanwhile, count on Golden State making adjustments. Steph is not only the best shooter in history (my opinion, and I’m not alone), but a brilliant ball-handler and a magician on the floor. He leads his team and gets everybody involved. All of them share the ball and are totally unselfish.

I gotta say I’ve been slow to warm up to LeBron over the years. But after watching what he’s done in Cleveland, and how he’s led his team, making every player on the floor better, every game, I’m in awe. If you love the game, you have to love the way that man plays. His worth and stature as one of the all-time-great team players only grows.

Same with Steph.

I want to see this thing go seven games. Only one team will win at the end. But so will the whole game, and every fan.

Alas, I’m probably going to miss some. I’m tied up and on the road right now, and probably will be for the next few weeks. So expect sparse blogging and tweeting. Just saying.