Something’s Happening Here

Occasionally,
we get a sense of disconnect between what is happening on the ground
and the world as seen through
Fox and CNN.  Such was the case with the peaceful, "massive" protest
march in NYC yesterday at the kickoff for the Republican National convention.

Today there was scant mention of the march, other than
to note that it was peaceful and that it was anti-GOP. Estimates of it’s
size vary. Many
reports speak only in general terms, like "large crowd"
and "stretching miles", while a number of others refer
to a crowd in the "tens of thousands," which to our ear anyway means
less than 100,000.

The New York police estimated the crowd at 120,000.  The
Boston Globe reported 400,000.  Organizers peg the total participation
at half a million.  If any of the latter estimates are correct,
it would make this the largest anti-war demonstration in US history.  The
largest single demonstration against the war in Vietnam was 250,000,
in a November
15, 1969 march in Washington, D.C.

Should this not be historic? These are Woodstock numbers.
Something’s happening here; what it is aint exactly clear. There is a
movement afoot in the land, and it is not anything the Democrats have
come up
with to
gain
an edge
in
the
election.

The methodology of
modern democracy seems to be to lull about half of the potential voters
(most young or poor or both) into a distracted complacency in which they
feel no need or obligation to vote.  Then the two Ruling Parties
each take 40% of the remaining half, composed mostly of deluded fools
following
the
herd
instinct, and
play political games for the precious 20% of the voters, 10% of emancipated
adults, who actually think about it, listen to the candidates, and make
a decision based on what they hear and see.

But occasionally, in key moments of tectonic shift in the
social firmament, the great mass of sleeping non-voters stirs. Something
penetrates their stupor or cynicism, and they feel the need to change
the course of the ship of state and the state of society. The last time
this happened was 35 years ago, during the Vietnam War and America’s
Cultural Revolution. It is not coincidental that this period has become
the focus of the current election.

Luckily for the class of professional politicians, the
massive monster that is The People eventually go back to sleep, the most
vital and charismatic among them institutionalized or co-opted into the
ruling
class. And so
we have
slept
these past 35 years. But we are starting to feel the stirring of the
beast in stories like those on yesterday’s march.

However, it is premature to declare the return of the spirit
of the 60’s. For such a movement to have a real and lasting effect on
the American experience
it must
become national, and self-sustaining, and much broader than a single-issue
crusade.

The movement in the 60’s was much more than a protest of
the war in Vietnam. It was about rock and roll, and recreational drugs,
and
the Pill, and the application of the Bill of Rights to a wider range
of Americans. It
was a period that also saw the birth of Globalization and the emergence
of the three axes of the 21st century; America, a unified Europe and
a China-led Asia.

To reawaken the subterranean fires of cultural renovation
in America the War
in
Iraq
must be combined with a gamut of other issues; America’s role in the
world, gay rights (the final frontier of Bill of Rights extension?),
America’s promises to the Baby Boomers as we approach our just and
unjust rewards, and most of all, in the admittedly distorted mind of
the Dowbrigade,
the development and democratization of the Internet and Cyberspace,

Will it happen? Like a terrorist attack, it is a given
that the sleeping half of the electorate will be roused at some point
in the future.  This is the saving grace of our system.  When,
however, is anyone’s guess.

Meanwhile, according to recent polls President Bush is
sitting pretty. The guy is a magician. Suddenly, without really doing
anything, he is standing tall and looking trustworthy and decisive. When
media magic works right its almost impossible to detect.

Poor John Kerry, after keeping it together and putting
on a pretty good show in his hometown last month, got NO BUMP in the
polls after the convention, not even the customary and almost automatic
3-5 points from increased media exposure. Somehow, that tricky rascal
George Bush has managed to get a 10 POINT BUMP BEFORE the convention!
What a brilliant reversal!

In early July, just before the Democratic Convention, the
President’s approval rating was in the mid 40’s, and the Democrats were
trumpeting the statistic that no sitting president up for reelection
had ever won with mid-summer numbers that low.

Now, with some recent polls putting Bush’s  overall
approval rating in the low 60’s, the Republicans are running around saying
that no sitting President running for reelection has ever LOST with ratings
that high going into the convention.

The convention seems designed to sway that mythical 10$
of the population who will actually vote but haven’t made up their minds
yet for whom. As Republican demographers have clearly figured out most
of these voters are independent-minded social liberals who like the idea
of a strong decisive leader. They are looking for undecided independents
and "soft" Democrats.

For that reason the line-up of prime time speakers at the
convention reads like "Rebels Without a Cause." Cult figure John McCain,
the man who turned down the Vice Presidency of the OTHER party to join
the Bush bandwagon, kicks things off tonight. Hew will be followed by
American Hero Rudolf Guiliani and tomorrow night the Terminator, Arnold
Schwarzenegger, a man with Presidential aspirations himself.

None of these featured speakers is in accord with the core
principles of the Republican Party on issues like Gay Rights, Stem Cell
research, or abortion. Never mind, they are stars and have proven public
appeal.  The real heavies, the guys who are going to be laying down
the law for the next four years if Bush wins, are nowhere to be seen,
or shunted into dead air slots, like Dennis Hastert and Bill Frist, who
spoke early this afternoon as a sort of Conservative Sound Test.

Meanwhile, the Flying Bush family Traveling Show is seemingly
everywhere. Presidential brother and heir apparent Jeb is hosting all
sorts of power meetups around town. Darling daughters and residential
Bad Girls Barbara and Jenna are wooing the X-generation. Latin heartthrob
George Prescott Bush is trying to overcome his own bad boy past and play
a role wooing the hispanic vote. All will be appearing at the convention,
along with ex-President George Bush and the wonderful Babs, everybody’s
favorite ex-first lady.

With a lineup like that, and a deep bench including Colin
Powell, Conde Rice, Dick Cheney and Tom Ridge, the Republicans are set
to put on a stellar show.  Democratic power circles are beginning
to take on an edge of desperate dementia.  After losing the White
House four short years ago on a brilliantly played winner-take-all endgame,
the Shock Troops are determined not to get out-Foxed again.

With
a bare-knuckle Yalie at the helm and extensive access to world-class
political
tricksters,
expect some nasty surprises from the Democratic camp after the dust settles
from the Republican convention. Who knows what they could come up with,
but some of that old black magic will definitely be needed to pull this
one out. 

Maybe they could get Ralph Nader to disappear. They will
clearly try to pressure the Repubs into a series of televised debates
(Kerry was a champion debater at Yale, Bush debated changing
his major to sports marketing). They will constantly be on the lookout
for Bushisms and verbal faux pas. And expect a little digging into Bush’s
"irresponsible youth".  What a remarkable contrast it
will provide if they can show that the very same day Kerry was turning
his Swift Boat directly into enemy fire somewhere near the Cambodian
border, Bush was in the midst of a 5-day booze and dope binge to celebrate
the
quality of that year’s Beaujolais.

Let’s hope John Kerry and the boys have a trick or two
up their sleeves. So what are their options? Unless his team can come
up with some surprising and effective underhanded tactics, be will we
swept
under
the rug with history’s other
losers, like Al Gore before him, and good riddance. Americans always
root for the underdog, but they hate a lkoser. It’s a put up or shut
up world, and the chips are on the table. Let’s hope
we
get
some
classic examples of creative chicanery on both sides before this show
is over.