Jason Yeo
Historical Study A-12, Paper 2
Due March 17, 2005TF: Gregg Peeples
Q2: Bruce Russett and John Oneal treat Liberalism and Hegemony as alternative or competing explanations of order in international politics. Hence, they assert that there is little evidence that hegemony has been associated with peace, and abundant evidence that the three pillars of liberalism have been so associated (see pages 184-191).
Critically evaluate this treatment. First, draw on historical material (especially 20th century material) and develop an explanation of international order that integrates the central insights of the Hegemonic and the Liberal approach to international order. Second, discuss whether it is more useful to think of these two approaches as competing or complementary.
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Liberalism v. Hegemonic Stability Theory:
A Constructivist Rejection of HegemonyThe ongoing debate between Realists and Liberalists in the arena of political science and international relations has already occupied many volumes. Today, while few academics would completely reject one theory or the other as worthless, there are those who argue for the virtual exclusion of one or the other as a valid perspective while others are attempting to bridge the gap between the two perspectives by viewing them as mostly complementary. In a close reading of Russett and Oneal’s characterization of Hegemony and Liberalism as alternative or competing explanations of order in international politics, this paper will briefly highlight some of the analytical weaknesses underlying this conclusion, and at the same time sketch a more conciliatory perspective that incorporates the chief insights of both the Hegemonic and the Liberal approach using 20th century material. I will then answer the question of whether it is more useful to think of the Hegemonic and Liberal approaches as competing or complementary, concluding that empirical results and constructivist arguments are both in favor of privileging the Liberal approach as the dominant competing perspective, although both approaches contain elements of truth.
At the outset, it is important to review Russett and Oneal’s overarching theory about Liberalism, which subsumes and adds to the Realist perspective, and which gives us a starting point for integrating the two approaches. For them, it would be a mistake to conceive of Liberalism as a competing way of understanding the world (Russett & Oneal, p.90) in the sense of retroactively replacing power-based Realist theories such as the Hegemonic Stability Theory. Instead, they posit that the three pillars of Liberalism[1] (vibrant international trade, liberal democracy, membership in Inter-Governmental Organisations, IGOs) serve two functions complementary to a Realist perspective – they offer politicians more and better tools for actively promoting international peace, and they form the basis of a new, more peaceful system within which to conduct international relations, where power is still important as in Realism, perhaps even supremely important for “coercion, persuasion or example” (Russett & Oneal, p.191), but yet different. The three pillars of Liberalism clearly change the way that national interest and power are conceived of by world leaders, and further, how and when this power is exercised.[2] As Russett and Oneal note, while Realists tend to focus pessimistically on the factors for conflict that states can do little or nothing to control or influence, like geographic proximity and relative military power[3], Liberalism offers practical, achievable objectives for states seeking sustainable peace, and these objectives in and of themselves tend to have positive outcomes that reinforce each other as well as increase the systemic likelihood of peace (more trade positively correlates with greater national wealth; liberal democracies tend to have better rule of law and institutional protections for civilians; IGOs can help to solve collective security problems and the prisoner’s dilemma problem as related to environmental regulations or dismantling trade barriers).
Moving from the general to the specifics, while Russett and Oneal present important empirical work in support of Liberalism, they overstep the limits of their statistical methods by claiming that there is little empirical support for the Hegemonic view, which claims that a so-called hegemon is associated with a peaceful international system. To begin with, the results presented by Russett and Oneal consistently support the theory that a preponderance of power within a dyad significantly reduces the likelihood of armed conflict within that dyad (for example, Russett and Oneal, p.191). This fact on its own already goes some way towards supporting the pacific effect of a hegemon although it is by no means conclusive (at the very least, dyads containing the hegemon are more likely to be peaceful). Next, although Russett and Oneal find no systemic effects on armed conflict on dyads not involving the hegemon, their own text reveals some confounding factors. Russett and Oneal themselves write that examining dyads is not particularly useful for examining the effects of a specific factor upon internal politics such as the effect that the existence of a hegemon might have on each country in the non-hegemon dyad (Russett and Oneal, p.199). Additionally, just as Russett and Oneal admit that their statistical method is unsuited to accurately analyzing the systemic effects of dense networks of IGOs (Russett and Oneal, p.169-170), so too are the factors examined unsuited to accurately measuring the indirect or systemic effects that an extant hegemon has on a particular dyad not containing the hegemon as they do not account for the magnitude and nature of the hegemon’s influence on either or both states in that dyad.
More revealingly, Russett and Oneal find the definition of a hegemon problematic (Russett and Oneal, p. 185), finally settling upon a relative value to measure the extent to which a country was acting as a hegemon in that period. This highlights the seemingly trivial fact that Hegemonic theory in its purest form is predicated on certain pre-requisites – there has to be a hegemon for Hegemonic theory to be relevant, the hegemon has to be (as defined) able to influence or control the external actions of all the other states in the system, and (importantly) the hegemon has to be both willing and interested in controlling the external actions of the other states in question.[4] Hegemonic theory works if these assumptions are true. Empirically however, there has never been a Great Power whose influence unquestionably covered the whole world. Far from being something to regret, this offers us an opportunity to test the hegemonic perspective. It would be interesting to see if hegemonic theory is supported by dyadic-interactions amongst dyads with varying extents to which the two states are within the hegemon’s sphere of influence.[5] As the level to which they are both within the hegemon’s sphere of influence increases, we would predict a lower likelihood of armed conflict if the Hegemonic approach is correct, although this correlation would not serve as conclusive proof.
Despite the shortcomings of the statistical work done by Russett and Oneal to discredit Hegemonic Stability Theory, we must still question the universal applicability of the Hegemonic approach to international order on the grounds that its latter two assumptions (that a hegemon can, and then should and will affect all other states in the world to maintain order) remain largely unrealistic. Even the United States, the only superpower today, could not possibly be expected to practically bear the burden of mediating and intervening in every international conflict everywhere in the world. Practically, the US has historically been least successful when intervening in regions far from its borders (Vietnam, Korea, Somalia), and least likely to intervene in globally isolated states of little strategic or economic importance (Rwanda, Haiti), results which make perfect sense from both Realist (greater distance and no influence on balance of power or security) and Liberal (low economic interdependence and shared membership in IGOs) perspectives. Of course, the extent to which this critique is useful also depends on the definition of international order. Our expectations for the hegemon would be much lower if international order is minimally-defined as a lack of general war or war that threatens to escalate into a general war but considerably higher if international order is defined as general peace and stability amongst all nations. Practically speaking, purely Realist Hegemonic theorists tend to place their hopes on an outcome far short of the higher bar. That is where we see the benefit of a Liberalist approach supported by Hegemonic power, which sets out as achievable the higher standard, while incidentally, but not unimportantly, promising a host of other societal benefits along the way such as faster development of technology through trade exchanges and greater civil and political freedoms for citizens in democratizing states.
In the end, when trying to decide if it is more “useful” to view the three pillars of Liberalism as competing with or complementary to Hegemonic Stability Theory (which derives directly from a Realist tradition), the yardstick has to be which perspective is more likely to lead to the peace and prosperity that states strive towards. It then becomes clear, from both empirical and constructivist arguments, that starting from the present, in an age of globalization where there is no significant organized ideological resistance to democracy and capitalism (as opposed to localized opposition from particular authoritarian regimes), that we would be better served to treat them as competing theories and to reject the Hegemonic approach in favor of Liberalism’s three pillars even if Hegemonic theory retains some descriptive, explanative, and predictive value.
A key difference in favor of Liberalism as the dominant perspective over Realism (of which the Hegemonic perspective is a subset) is the more robust prescriptive ability of Liberalism. Simply put, Liberalism offers a clear roadmap for policy makers in the form of the three pillars, and notes that since each pillar constitutes part of a dense web of positively reinforcing effects encouraging peace and prosperity, it is almost immaterial which pillar is focused on first or first instituted (Russett & Oneal, p.193). In sharp contrast, Realist theorists such as Mearsheimer tend to be confused over the finer (but critical) details of what arrangements of power actually contribute to widespread peace and stability.[6] There are real conflicts between the mutually exclusive theories about whether a multi-polar, bipolar or hegemonic system best leads to systemic peace, and almost embarrassingly, the strongest refutations of each theory tend to come from within the Realist camp, casting doubts on the ability of Realism to offer useful prescriptions. Quite frankly, the easiest way to understand the conflict within the Realist camp is to see that they are all wrong in principle, even as they can each be right in a particular case. Analogous to theories for predicting stock market movements derived from past date, while the logic that Realists deduce from examining each particular historical case may be compelling and closely supported by historical data, these theories are backwards looking, and ultimately cannot be easily generalized into useful, actionable principles for achieving international order. Returning to Hegemonic Stability Theory, this critique can be framed as a constructivist argument, where the factors and determination of “power” and “national interest” and “security” by both the leaders of the hegemon and of other states is so subjective, culturally-informed and (on some level) arbitrary, to the point that making accurate predictions of what each state will do based on the Hegemonic perspective becomes difficult. In contrast, the culture and values fostered by the three pillars of Liberalism push armed conflict to the very bottom of options in the foreign policy toolkit, so much so that it may never even be considered. From a constructivist standpoint, renaming the British Office of War the Ministry of Defense[7] constitutes more than an exercise in political correctness. It marks a paradigmatic change that makes armed conflict against other democracies almost unthinkable.
Some may protest against this constructivist rejection of Hegmonic Stability Theory, citing Robert Keohane’s thesis that a hegemon is necessary in order to begin the process of building up the liberal pillars by overcoming the initial barriers (externalities) to building a cooperative international economic regime (by asymmetrically bearing the costs of setting up the regime) and by solving the classic prisoner’s dilemma involved in collective security arrangements (by providing or guaranteeing security). In response, it is easy to point out that the limited number of historical examples to draw on hardly offers more than circumstantial evidence that hegemony is the only means of achieving the three pillars of Liberalism.[8] But more importantly, in rejecting Hegemonic Stability Theory, we are not ignoring its explanative power looking backward in time. Instead, we are looking forward, looking for the perspective that allows us the best hope of predicting and working towards a Kantian perpetual peace. In rejecting a Hegemonic perspective, we are agreeing with Keohane’s own view that once the pillars of Liberalism have taken root, the hegemon’s role becomes markedly less important in maintaining the system, which of course makes perfect sense from a Liberalist perspective. Once Liberalist principles are in operation, the hegemon is no longer responsible for single-handedly holding the whole system together, a near-impossibility to begin with, and instead all the interconnected states have a vested interest in maintaining the system, which can be done at much lower costs to each state and is a far more plausible and sustainable arrangement.
Finally, it is worth reiterating Russett and Oneal’s view that even if we accept that there is some Realist formula for peace (based on proximity, bipolarity, hegemony, power transition theory or something else), there is little that thoughtful politicians can be expected to do outside of good fortune to change these factors. We cannot impose hegemony or create a bipolar world if these do not already exist, and we cannot change the geographic distance between existing powerful countries, nor can we (or should we) prevent the natural rise and decline of states such as China or India. In short, Realism might arguably have some explanative and predictive power, but leaves little constructive action to be taken. It is undeniably more useful to reject the Hegemonic approach because it adds little to our understanding, introduces various unnecessary risks (the hegemon could well turn despotic and expansionary), and gives us few options for actively achieving perpetual peace.
References:
Keohane, Robert O., “A Functional Theory of International Regimes,” “Hegemonic Cooperation in the Postwar Era,” After Hegemony: Collaboration and Discord in the World Political Economy, pp. 85-97, 107-109, 135-150, 187-190
Mearsheimer, John J., “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War,” International Security, (Vol. 15, No. 1): 5-56
Russett, Bruce; Oneal, John R.,
Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations
W. W. Norton & Company, Inc, 2001
[1]
Russett and Oneal refer to the “Kantian Triangle”, but in this essay the three elements of the Kantian system – International Organizations, Democracy and Economic Interdependence – are referred to as the “three pillars of Liberalism”.
[2]
For example, democracy can limit the use of military power because military actions have to pass the test of public approval as the US found out in Vietnam and the Gulf Wars. Economic interdependence can tip the balance in favor of peaceful outcomes in the national interest due to the possible losses from trade disruptions caused by even the threat of armed conflict. Taiwan’s traditionally cautious view towards provoking China probably draws largely from its desire to remain attractive to foreign direct investment.
[3]
Russett and Oneal’s statistical analysis consistently confirm that traditional Realist factors such as geographic proximity (dyads with a shared border are more likely to engage in war) and relative power (dyads with a preponderance of power on one side are less likely to engage in war) are important.
[4]
Also often overlooked is the implicit assumption that the hegemon is a rational, benign and probably democratic state. These characteristics are by no means necessary conditions to achieving hegemonic powers, as evidenced by Imperial China under the Mongols or the Imperial Roman Empire.
[5]
We might hypothesize that the less influenced state would be less restrained by the hegemon and thus more likely to initiate or escalate conflict, or that the more-influenced state would be more likely to initiate conflict because it has the backing of the hegemon. It would thus be important to parse out the different kinds of hegemonic influence. It makes a difference whether the more-influenced state is an ally of the hegemon, or simply asymmetrically economically-dependent on the hegemon.
[6]
A lengthier, detailed critique of the internal incoherence underlying Mearsheimer’s arguments for a bipolar world, or as the next best thing, a Europe stabilized by controlled nuclear proliferation awaits a different opportunity. But to give a specific example, Mearsheimer claims that the Soviet Union’s failure to aid Czechoslovakia against Germany in 1938 for geographic reasons (no shared border) offers evidence for the dangers of multipolarity (Mearsheimer, p.23). Yet the stated problem of geographic distance is unrelated to the way power is distributed amongst nations and a hegemon would face the same difficulties when dealing with distant states. America’s current reluctance to deal with North Korea reflects both the legacy of the great geographical distance as well as an unwillingness to provoke North Korea to use its nuclear capabilities. The destabilizing factor of the nuclear weapons in North Korea also directly discredits Mearsheimer’s preference for nuclear proliferation, no matter how controlled or limited.
[7]
The US War Department was similarly re-christened the Defense Department in 1947
[8]
Arguments by analogy could also be made for the possibility of a Liberalist international system arising without the need for a central force bearing the externalities and solving the security problem by looking to the initial, often bloody, spread of such disparate ideas as democracy, Christianity and communism across regions. Clearly, ideas can spread, take root and transform the world even in the face of great adversity.