Taking Bearings

There is blood in the water now…

It was hard to imagine things getting worse for President Biden. First his administration bungles the withdrawal. Now we have reports he ignored intelligence reports warning of a rapidly changing situation in Afghanistan. The New York Times report cited below also points toward substantial intelligence failures.

Despite saying many things upon which many already agreed in his address to America about the larger strategic need to withdraw from Afghanistan, President Biden also showed weakness as Commander-in Chief Biden in his address to American yesterday by dwelling on, and creating a a straw man out of, those more politically popular points while refusing to answer what would have certainly tough questioning from reporters about urgent issues he failed to address in his speech.

Sadly, the morning after the morning after takeaway may become this…

America’s enemies — including the Taliban as evidenced by a sweeping coup conducted while America still has a military presence in their country — now find us weak. They do not fear that we can effectively use our strong military arms. Fairly or unfairly, they sense weakness in President Biden and see an America paralyzed by partisan division and navel-gazing culture wars.

If this is true, our troubles internationally are just starting.

For twenty years we tried to stabilize a tribal country. For our blood and treasure we were able to bring a measure of justice to terrorists and those who harbored them; deny safe haven to those who want to harm Americans and destroy America; and, for a brief time, offer a better life for Afghan women and children.

Our troops, special forces, and intelligence officers performed bravely and sacrificed much. Honor is due.

The blame for the mess that is Afghanistan does indeed lie with an Afghan people and culture that does not embrace the requisite values required of a democracy. While tens of thousands of brave Afghans have died fighting to make a better life for themselves and their families, in the end, Afghanistan capitulated rather than fight for democracy and freedom from a brutal and repressive theocracy.

Afghanistan has been in turmoil since the succession of leftist coups and internal fractioning in the 70s deposed the monarchy. Our support for the insurgent Mujahideen against he Soviets and Soviet -backed Afghan government was a temporary “victory” that was never going to turn out well and, indeed, quickly soured under President Clinton’s inattention and the rise of the Taliban along the road to 9/11. We were right to invade after the attack on America. We had no alternative. Alas, President Bush lost focus and mission creep set in. There is plenty of blame to pass around three — and now four administrations — for the mismanagement and failed strategy that followed. We did not make Afghanistan safe for democracy, but we made it tolerably safe for the occupation industry that sprang up there and in Iraq.

Biden has been Commander-in-Chief for seven months. It was his job — and his administration’s job — to maintain situational awareness, assess, and respond to changes.

He failed.

The same criticisms were leveled at President Bush after 9/11. What happens on a Commander-in Chief’s watch is his responsibility, even if it is not his fault. This is a hard truth.

There is no way to spin it off President Biden’s responsibility for the withdrawal debacle to the Trump administration.

Moreover, President Biden’s claim that he only had two choices, to accept the deal or escalate the conflict is a false dichotomy that.rings as hollow as pronouncements that we will continue to speak out for human rights, including the rights of women and children, in Afghanistan.

President Biden’s only chance at redemption is to own up to his failures and conduct a flawless withdrawal and relocation of Afghans who helped us — and who now look to us for refuge. He can still right this situation, conduct an effective withdrawal henceforth, save those who we promised we would protect, and get us out of Afghanistan and into a strategic position he outlined in his speech. If he does, the horrible optics of last few days may fade and America’s standing internationally salvaged.

If not, if he fails further, he has left his political opponents with a strong hand to play regardless the future cards drawn.

If the Taliban have reformed (which I do not believe for a second) former President Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo will crow about how right they were to strike a deal and that President Biden then simply blew the withdrawal. If things turn uglier in Afghanistan –especially for women and children– over the next few years, President Trump’s supporters will argue that the Trump administration drew down to 2,500 soldiers in Afghanistan without a death or chaos, only to then have President Biden came along and simultaneously bungle the withdrawal and any chance for the Afghan government to succeed (which was scant) on their way to creating a humanitarian and international perception disaster. President Biden’s political opposition will be able to point toward emboldened enemies abroad and self-destructive hatred from “useful idiots” within.

I would rather our enemies respect us, and I want President Biden to succeed, but if he continues to blunder in Afghanistan and along America’s border, in future elections –failing new political lights appear — we may be forced to choose between more dignified incompetence on one hand and loutish unfitness and and incompetence on the other. The latter offering greater security if only because it is our enemies can’t easily gauge or respond to unpredictable madness.

Like sharks waiting to feed, I fear our enemies will now move toward the smell of blood in the water.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/us/politics/afghanistan-biden-administration.html