THE GERMAN PEOPLE VOTE “NO” ON REFORM
…They’ll Get It Anyway 
The German elections are over and, if such rituals counted for anything, the Left clearly would have won. True, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s Social Democrats (SDP) were not first past the post. That distinction belongs to the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its leader Angela Merkel. She is already coming to regret it.
Instead, it was practically speaking a dead tie; 35 point something to 34 point something, less than 9 tenths of one percent separating the two. For Ms Merkel, who had been widely advertised as becoming Germany’s next chancellor with anything from 42 to 47 per cent of the vote, the election is a humiliating defeat. She will have a rough time of it merely holding on to the leadership of the CDU, never mind becoming Germany’s first woman leader. Despite her show of bravado on Sunday evening, her reform program of flat taxes, reduced social spending, and the vitiation of Germany’s “social market” has been rebuked by the country’s voters.
For the rest, there is the Left Party, the odd marriage between the remnants of the East German Communists and dissidents within the ruling Social Democrats. Led by Oskar LaFontaine (from the West) and Gregor Gysi (his eastern counterpart), they were the most vociferous opponents of reform. They ended up with about 9 per cent, nearly 1 point ahead of the ruling Greens. This gives the Left an overall total of 51 per cent.
The pro-reform Right, by contrast, polled less than 46 per cent (the difference being made up by smaller and regional parties who will have failed the 5 per cent test for getting into the Bundestag (Germany’s parliament). The results were the worst for the CDU since the early 1980s. The one bright spot for the right was the vigorous results enjoyed by the liberal Free Democrats, who polled nearly eleven per cent. It may do them little good in the end.
What happens now? Since neither of the two major parties have anywhere near the majority needed to form a government (Mr Schroeder has declared unequivocally he will not share power with the Lefts), the prospect of a Grand Coaltion looms large. Such a creature may limp along for awhile but, in all likelihood, new elections will be held sooner rather than later.
For those who rule Germany and their counterparts throughout the realm of western capitalism, there is no alternative to the reforms urged by the Right. Unemployment in Germany stands at nearly 12 per cent. That figure is replicated throughout the continent. Economies remain stagnant. Europe in fact looks to become a backwater to the rising Asian economies of China and India, and to the still-dominant economic power of the United States. European capitalists will not change the way they do business. A definitive program of social annihilation is the only feasible alternative. And they will see to it that people “vote until they get it right”.
Mr Schroeder, if he remains Chancellor — an all but unthinkable prospect before Sunday evening — will continue to talk against reform while moving closer towards it. The CDU, with or without Angela Merkel, will position itself somewhat more to the left, embracing in the end a syrupy version of reform more like that of the SDP. The minor parties of both left and right will issue urgent communiques to little or no avail. The Greens will probably end up with some portfolio in the new government; craven opportunism has become their signature under Joschka Fischer. They already back some limited version of reform, but will probably balk at its more extreme proposals like the flat tax.
All this rigamarole has greatly upset the capitalist class in and out of Europe, which had been counting on a convincing Merkel win in order to re-vitalize reform throughout the West. The morning after has seen an evisceration of her campaign and its main actors, especially that of Mr Paul Kirchhof, the finance advisor whose outspoken radicalism is widely cited as a reason for the paltry electoral results. In the end, most if not all of his prescriptions will be filled and administered to the ailing economy. If they fail to shake Germany out of its economic ennui, the nation’s capitalist democracy will be at an impasse.
What then? The past quarter-century has witnessed a Great Retreat of the Social Market everywhere in Europe (as well as in the USA, where a nascent version was beginning to take uncertain root following the upheavals of the 1960s). The neo-liberalism which is replacing it is in ever deeper crisis. Yes, reform will eventually be shoved down the throats of the German people, as it has been and will continue to be throughout the West. But, will even this be enough to solve capitalism’s innate and growing crisis?
If not, more radical solutions may be in order.