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Chicago Booth: Hi Hong Kong!

The University of Chicago Booth School of Business has announced its decision to move its Asia campus from Singapore to Hong Kong, putting a half-year rumor to rest. Starting from 2014, students enrolled in the Chicago Booth’s EMBA program take classes in Chicago, London, and Hong Kong.

This is certainly something to applaud for Hong Kong. It is an endorsement from a world-leading business school that Hong Kong is the business hub of Asia. The EMBA program will also bring in many senior business executives from around the globe; these future leaders would then have a better understanding of Hong Kong, and some of them may even stay on to develop their careers here.

The Hong Kong government has for years claimed to develop the “education services industry”, hailed as one of the “six new pillar industries“, but with little success. The number of non-local students did see a large number of increase in the past few years, but the “non-local” label has become synonymous to “mainland Chinese” as they now comprise almost 90% of the non-local population (see chart below). Since most of these students are either heavily subsidied by the Hong Kong taxpayers, or are on scholarship funded by the Hong Kong universities, Hong Kong has in essence yet to monetize their education services “industry”. But of course, a direct financial loss can still mean an indirect gain, for example, if those mainland Chinese students are the crème de la crème, whose researches help raise the ranking and global reputation of the Hong Kong universities.

This also signals a (encouraging) change of mindset within the government. Haunted by the laissez-faire idoeology, the Hong Kong government has long been unwilling to provide incentives for the overseas educational instituions to set up campuses in Hong Kong. Neighbouring Singapore has pushed aggressively to attracted school like Yale, Wharton-INSEAD, ESSEC, to either partner with a local Singapore university or set up an independent campus there. The agreement to provide Chicago Booth with a prime land in Hong Kong for almost free signals the Hong Kong’s warming attitude towards industrial policy. This is a good start.

Yet the Hong Kong government should be mindful of two issues in order to make the Chicago Booth-Hong Kong partnership fruitful.

The first is to make sure Hong Kong would tap into the knowledge and talents that Chicago Booth would bring to Hong Kong. It is not the first time Chicago Booth relocates an overseas office. In 2005, it moves its European campus from Barcelona to London, because although Barcelona has nicer weather and food, London is the true financial center in Europe. Similarly, Chicago Booth has already had a 13-year relationship with Singapore before it decides to leave. If Hong Kong does not remain competitive in the coming decade, Chicago Booth would not hesitate to move its campus again at the end of this 10-year partnership with Hong Kong.

The second is to ensure that Hong Kong universities can upgrade their capabilities and be able to compete globally. By physically situated close to the University of Hong Kong, Chicago Booth would certainly bring more competition in the EMBA market in Hong Kong. Healthy competition is a good thing, but it is possible that the entry of Chicago Booth would suck up the talented potential students from HKU (or indeed other Hong Kong universities); in that case, the standard and reputation of the Hong Kong universities could suffer instead. A joint program such as the Kellogg-HKUST EMBA program – or joint school – is a better option, because it allows the local universities to leverage on the reputation on their partners, and even in case the partnership discontinues in the future, the local universities still retain the know-how and reputation to run their programs and compete globally.

But a joint-program/school is much trickier. The Yale-NUS College has attracted immense criticisms back at Yale for its possible inability to uphold academic freedom in Singapore, an “authoritarian state”. It also requires much more resources from the local government, of which Hong Kong government is rather unprepared to commit to. Indeed, the NYU Law School has recently terminated its partnership with NUS for that very reason:

The NYU@NUS program was initially established for 4 years — the classes of 2008 to 2011. Towards the end of this period, NYU and NUS decided to extend the program for another 3 years to the class of 2014. We have now agreed to conclude the program without seeking additional financing to extend it. In the last few years, the cost of graduate legal education has risen significantly, and running the program in Singapore has been made possible by a generous grant by the government of Singapore to fund the numerous scholarships offered. Unfortunately, the program did not become self-financing in the way we had hoped it would; continuing it in its present form would entail a significant diversion of financial resources on the part of both NYU and NUS. With regret, therefore, our two institutions have now arrived at the mutual decision to allow the program to conclude and not to seek a further extension.

Let’s hope Hong Kong can really industialized their educational services this time.

Bitcoin: Virtual money drives out real?

Bad money drives out good. But does virtual money drives out real?

That sounds a laughable idea at first: why would people want to pay real dollars for virtual currencies at all? And albeit Bitcoin’s “monetary supply” is determined by strict rules, which require super-computer to solve processor-intensive equations so that the supply of Bitcoin would not grow too quickly, there is hardly any guarantee that the rules will be adhered in the future (or faster computers be created). That means Bitcoin hyperinflation is always a remote possibility. There is, of course, nothing close to a deposit insurance for Bitcoin, too, should the Bitcoin “bank” close down one day.

What is more perplexing to most people then, is that the first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) – the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust – is introduced this week. And the “Winklevoss” name can hardly give a sense of credibility to the whole idea. To quote the Wall Street Journal:

If the Winklevoss name rings a bell, that means you probably saw the movie “The Social Network,” or know enough about the origins of Facebook to know that Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss — twins who attended Harvard and rowed in the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing — claimed that Mark Zuckerberg essentially stole their idea for the business. The twins walked away with a settlement worth $20 million in cash, and Facebook shares worth, conservatively, 10 times more.

It is also interesting to note that China has emerged as a big centre of Bitcoin users. The graph from FT below shows that China has the second-biggest numbers of downloads of Bitcoin wallet downloads (a proxy to measure the popularity of Bitcoin), after the US. And the jump was especially significant since March 2013.

Sources: Sourceforge.net

So why would people want to convert their hard-earned “real money” into Bitcoins? For some, Bitcoin is just another way to escape the formal financial system to launder monies. Terrorists and organized crime networks have longed hoarded cash (i.e. banknotes) so that they leave no trace to the regulators. Bitcoin, despite its illiquidity, may still be a better and easier way for these criminals to wire money to each other.

But Bitcoin may gain its popularity because of its volatile price. In the last year alone, Bitcoins are traded between US$13 and US$266. The value of the currency is determined by nothing more than speculation. For investors awash with liquidity, especially in closed economies like China, hot money would naturally find its way into real assets. Bitcoin is hardly a “real” asset, but it is still something that people can invest in. That, however, doesn’t fit in with the credit crunch in China stories that have worried the investment world.

Despite its ambition to be a digital currency, Bitcoin is hardly money in an economic sense. It would only merely fulfill the first of the three functions of money: (i) an unit of account, (ii) a medium of exchange, and (iii) a store of value. Bitcoin is at best an investable commodity. But sadly, there seems to be a bubble that is about to pop too.

Back to the blogosphere

I used to maintain a blog at Xanga a few years back. Spending an hour to sit down and write a (long) blogpost had been a norm rather than the exception – not just for me, but for many in my generation. We didn’t mind sharing our philosophical, emotional, if not sometimes naive, young thoughts to the public. It was the good age when (non-commercial) writing was part of our life.

And then the introduction of the social media completely changed the landscape. I started my Facebook epoch in 2007, when the social network began to gain traction, and soon I – and most of my friends – ceased to write long blogposts. Indeed, Xanga has closed down a month ago. It was not just because our time have become much more constrained by other work, but also because we all have much short attention span nowadays. No one would want to read anything longer than 140 characters, and if you have an opinion, you don’t need to write anything: just press the “like” button.

It has also become apparent that in the age of “big data”, the impact of a single blogpost from an not-so-famous blog/blogger is negliable. From an economic perspective, it is questionable if it is worth the time and energy to write a blogpost (not to mention maintain a blog), while there are so many other options for us to invest our time.

So why come back?

For one thing, I like writing. Or to be precise, I like having written something. Maintaining a blogpost is a “commitment device” for me to fight my laziness in thinking and writing. It also helps me organize my many random thoughts that I have generated with in my daily life. Of course, a blog is a platform for me to share with a larger audience what I have encountered and have reflected upon here in the US, and at Harvard in particular. I am very fortunate to be able to listen to the world biggest thinkers, and as the Gospel of Luke famously said, “from the one who has been entrusted with much, much more will be asked”. Changing the world may be a big dream, but sharing our life here to those who could not afford to make it is definitely something that we can all do. This brings me to my last point, which is to record my learnings and thinkings in my daily life. This blog would be something that I could look back, reflect on, and perhaps laugh at, 20 years later.

So this is my new (academic) year’s resolution. But as any economics student would know, there is significant “time inconsistency” in my promise. This is evident from the very fact that this blog was indeed registered more than a year ago, but has been abandoned every since. And that is how your encouragement and participation would make a difference. Leaving your feedback or comments would be great, but just chekcing back this blog is encouraging enough. This is an intellectual journey that would be interesting only if you are engaged.

Thank you for reading this first and long post. I hope you will find this blog interesting.