AIDS in Africa: Three scenarios to 2025

(Just promoting a discussion group message to news item. Thanks to sreadal for pointing this out!)

UNAIDS just came out with a new report that presents three possible scenarios for AIDS in Africa assuming different African and international responses to the epidemic. The full report is available at http://www.unaids.org.

From the New York Times  http://nytimes.com/2005/03/05/health/05a…):
In one outline, African countries adopt tough long-term measures in which leaders exert the discipline to equate action with rhetoric and focus on prevention. By 2025, the numbers would grow but then fall to today’s levels and continue to fall. But the number of orphans would double. This plan would cost an estimated $100 billion with the United States spending $5 billion a year to 2015 and then $6 billion a year.
In a second situation, which would be medically focused, prevention measures would not be stepped up, so anti-retroviral drugs would be easier to obtain than good nutrition and clean water. In this approach, government leaders would fail to get ahead of the AIDS epidemic, and Africa’s poverty and underdevelopment would deepen. Keeping such services at today’s level would cost $4 billion a year by 2025.
A third outline envisioned investments in health systems, agriculture, education, electrification, water and roads to change fundamentally the ways donors provide aid and recipient countries deal with the donations, to avoid inflation and not promote dependency. Such a situation would provide anti-retroviral drugs to 70 percent of people needing them by 2025.

That effort would be expected to halve the number of people living with H.I.V. and AIDS despite an anticipated growth in population of 50 percent. The cost would be $200 billion, with the United States increasing its contribution to $10 billion a year by 2014 and sustaining that amount until 2025, when it would begin to decrease.

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