Filed under: Blogroll,chain-gang,indescribable,international,metrics,Too weird for fiction
…and when they make loose with a few orders of magnitude.
Rouder and Morey critique some recent work by Bem on “Feeling for the Future”:
“[O]ur assessment is that Bem’s experiments, collectively, provide some evidence of psi phenomena, but not enough to sway the beliefs an appropriately skeptical reader…
…There is [a] surprising degree of evidence for the hypothesis that people can feel the future with emotionally-valenced nonerotic stimuli, with a Bayes factor of about 40. Though this value is certainly noteworthy, it is several orders of magnitude lower than what is required to overcome appropriate skepticism of such implausible claims.”
The framing of the questions and hypotheses here is most amusing, and worth a read. Rouder’s face sums up this whole debate.
Hat-tip to Cassandra Vieten at HuPo.